Research On Connecting Line Of Urban Passenger Station And Its Capacity Allocation

Transportation is a basic,leading,strategic and important service industry in the national economy.With the progress of social economy,various transportation modes in large cities have relatively complete system architecture and overall layout,and basically formed a comprehensive transportation infrastructure network composed of highway,railway,aviation and other transportation modes.Restricted by many factors such as geographical location,there is a common phenomenon of separation and poor connection between passenger stations with different modes of transportation in the city,which leads to the inconvenience of passenger transfer between stations.In order to improve the passenger transfer service level,this paper plans the connecting line to realize the seamless connection between passenger stations of different modes of transportation.Among them,how to accurately predict the scale of passenger flow and reasonably plan the capacity allocation is an urgent problem to be solved in connecting line planning.In view of the above problems,the research contents of this paper are as follows.1.Analysis and prediction of transfer demand between stations.The prediction method of station passenger volume based on random forest algorithm is designed,and the prediction results are compared with those of exponential smoothing method and multiple regression method to verify the accuracy of random forest model;Based on the prediction results of passenger volume of stations,the double four stage method is used to predict the passenger flow of connecting lines.This method comprehensively considers the influence of external areas and passenger stations on the passenger flow,and can better reflect the real scale of passenger flow between stations than the single four stage method.2.Research on capacity allocation of connecting line.Based on the transfer demand between stations and yards,a variety of layout forms are selected to configure the transport capacity for the connecting line to form a number of alternative schemes;By analyzing the influence of line construction cost,operation cost,transfer demand and other factors on transport capacity allocation,the comprehensive cost estimation model of connecting line is constructed;By comparing the comprehensive costs of different layout schemes,the transport capacity configuration scheme with the lowest comprehensive cost is obtained.3.Capacity allocation for the connecting line between the airport and the railway station in the case city.Based on the prediction results of passenger traffic volume of interchange between stations and yards,the layout scheme with the lowest comprehensive cost is selected for the connecting line,and the feasibility of the prediction method of the transfer demand scale of the connecting line and the comprehensive cost estimation model is verified.