Passenger Flow Forecast And Traffic Location Analysis Of Highway Passenger Station

Passenger station demand forecasting and traffic location analysis is the base of the station layout. By researching the passenger traffic location and researching the passenger station demand forecasting can improve the effectiveness of passenger planning.This paper introduced the every single traffic prediction method and the four-step forecasting model based on traffic zone division. It compared the application and prediction different forecast methods: growth rate method, exponential smoothing method and multiple linear regression method, and got a applicable scope for different prediction methods; In exponential smoothing analysis, we selected different weight coefficients in order to get the method of selecting weight coefficient; by comparing the results of different set of influence factors using multiple linear regression, we figured out the method of selecting influence factors. By combining with passenger market demand analysis and average daily transportation capacity prediction, this paper can provide a basis to determine the passenger level and scales.Starting from the method of location theory, this paper introduced the theory of traffic location theory and analysis method, as well as the concept of the traffic location and traffic location lines. It analyzed the composition factors of traffic location, described the analysis application methods of traffic location and studied the purpose and significance of passenger station location, comparing advantages and disadvantages of the layout of both traditional and traffic location.The paper studied the analysis traffic location method of passenger station, taking Zhen'an passenger station as an example. According to this, it analyzed the traffic location of Zhen'an passenger station in different contexts, with a conclusion of its external and internal traffic location lines. By coarsening its external traffic location lines, the traffic location line network was studied under national and provincial context; as for the internal traffic location line network the administrative bit line, the population location lines, traffic location lines, tourism resources and location line and mineral resources location line was mainly studied to generate internal traffic location line of Zhen'an passenger station. The set of passenger bus stops was settled according to node importance analysis. By summarizing the network of traffic location lines, we proposed the new idea which uses traffic location theory to guide layout planning of passengers.