| Real-time risk monitor system is a nuclear power plant risk analysis tool developed on the basis of Living PSA,which is characterized by timely updating in two aspects: one is the configuration of nuclear power plant equipment;another is the basic event data.The traditional PSA basic event data adopts the average value,and the calculated results can only reflect the average risk level of nuclear power plants,which cannot calculate the risk index in real time.Aiming at the requirements of the basic event data of the real-time risk monitor system and considering the application of equipment reliability management in nuclear power plants,this thesis developed the engineering software of the online reliability data collection,analysis and storage system for nuclear power plants,and carried out functional testing and verification under the environment conditions of nuclear power plant simulator.This study not only provides the basic event data support for the real-time risk monitor and management system,but also can be used in nuclear power plant life extension,reliability centered maintenance and prognostic & health management research.The main work contents of this thesis are as follows:1)Study the concept of basic event data for real-time risk monitoring,analyze data requirements,study the application of Weibull distribution model to basic event data calculation,put forward the service life distribution model to calculate basic event probability in real time and apply it to the calculation of risk index such as Core Damage Frequency and importance degree of nuclear power plant equipment;2)Based on the digital information system and condition monitoring system of nuclear power plant,study the method of equipment reliability data collection and pretreatment,design the data structure and data storage method for real-time risk monitoring;3)Using censored sample data to update the reliability parameters of nuclear power plant equipment,the distribution fitting method of large sample data and the Bayesian updating method of small sample data are studied.4)Based on the actual application of nuclear power plants,the reliability data online collection,analysis and storage system was developed,and the system was verified and tested.The results show that the basic event data for real-time risk monitor can be obtained by analyzing the equipment reliability and fitting the equipment life distribution with the equipment state change history under the condition of automatic data collection of the current equipment state.The developed software system provides a convenient platform for data acquisition and storage,which improves the data collection efficiency and ensures the accuracy of data.The data results can not only effectively support the equipment management activities of nuclear power plants,but also have important significance for the safety management of risk guidance and other activities. |