Prediction Of Typhoon Extreme Wind Speed Based On Full-Track Model

The southeast of China is surrounded by the sea and has a long coastline,which is seriously affected by typhoon disasters.Every year,typhoon landing will bring serious loss of life and property to coastal areas.With the rapid development of economy and technology in China,a large number of large-span and super-high-rise buildings emerge in the coastal cities.These buildings are very sensitive to wind load,so the determination of design wind speed has an important impact on the structure design.At present,some developed countries have applied typhoon hazard analysis method to the formulation of wind load norms in typhoon-prone areas.Due to the late start of research and the lack of sufficient high-quality observation data,China,in this field,have no similar code to provide corresponding reference for the determination of wind load of construction projects in southeastern coastal areas under typhoon.At present,researchers generally use Monte Carlo numerical simulation method to predict the extreme wind speed of typhoon,but it has great limitations.With the development of full-track simulation methods,the prediction of extreme wind speed of typhoon based on full-track is of great research significance and value.Firstly,according to the movement characteristics of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific region,a typhoon classified statistic model was established,and a large number of typhoon tracks are simulated by this model.Then,the key parameters of typhoon are calculated according to the simulated tracks and the intensity model.And then the key parameters are brought into the typhoon wind field model to calculate the maximum wind speed series at each research point.Finally,based on the maximum wind speed series and reasonable probability distribution model of typhoon extreme wind speed,the extreme wind speed of research cities under different recurrence periods is inferred.This paper compares the simulated track with the historical track from different angles,and the results show that the typhoon classified statistic model has high reliability.Compared with the two empirical typhoon wind field models,the linear typhoon wind field model has similar accuracy and stronger theory.By comparing the extreme wind speed of typhoon in the historical track with that in the simulated track,it can be seen that there is little difference.