Study On Demand Elasticity Of Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Under The Background Of Railway Competition

In recent years,China’s high-speed railway industry has emerged as a new force.The improvement of railway network not only alleviates the shortage of China’s transport capacity,but also causes a great impact on the civil aviation passenger transport market.Some airlines saw passenger numbers fall off a cliff and were even forced to cancel flights.The research and judgment on the demand side of civil aviation is helpful to timely adjust the operation strategy of civil aviation enterprises according to the market situation,rationally arrange the transport capacity,and promote the healthy and sustainable development of civil aviation passenger transport market.Existing in domestic literature research on civil aviation demand side of the main research focus on the analysis of the influence factors of the civil aviation passenger transport demand,the domestic empirical study of the civil aviation passenger transport demand price elasticity is relatively less,and the domestic competition,the study of railway civil aviation most existing high-speed is only considered the influence of the demand for civil aviation,did not consider moving car and common rail impact on civil aviation passenger transport market,therefore,There is still some research space on the demand of civil aviation passenger transport.On this basis,based on the macroeconomic data of domestic cities from 2013 to 2017 and the operation data of civil aviation and railway,this paper takes domestic navigable city pairs as the research object and calculates the price elasticity,cross price elasticity and cross speed elasticity of China’s civil aviation passenger demand through multiple regression analysis of panel data.The influence of railway development level index and high speed rail frequency on price elasticity of civil passenger demand is also studied.It provides reference for price adjustment of enterprises and public policy making of government.This paper mainly studies the following aspects: First,this paper systematically combs the development background and competition background of China civil aviation and railway,and summarizes relevant research literature;Secondly,this paper sorts out and expounds the theories related to transportation market and railway and civil aviation competition.Then,this paper analyzes the competition between railway and civil aviation on the basis of theoretical research.Finally,this paper builds a demand model for civil aviation passenger transport,measures the price elasticity,cross price elasticity and cross speed elasticity of civil aviation demand under the influence of railway competition,and explores the impact of railway speed,price and high-speed rail operation frequency on the price elasticity of civil aviation demand.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows :(1)the overall demand for civil aviation passenger transport in China is significantly affected by the weighted average speed and weighted average price of railway,and the price elasticity of civil aviation demand is-0.4,the cross price elasticity is 0.30,and the cross speed elasticity is-0.30.The overall market lacks elasticity.(2)In the market of routes within 800 km,the demand for civil passenger transport is elastic to the price and speed of railway.At this time,the elasticity of cross price is 1.67 and the elasticity of cross speed is-2.01.In the 800-1500 km route with fierce competition between railway and civil aviation,the impact of civil aviation ticket price on demand is the most significant,and the demand elasticity within this distance is the highest,reaching-0.44.The operating frequency of high-speed rail within this distance has a significant impact on passenger demand.(3)Within the 800-1500 km route,the weighted average speed and price have a significant moderating effect on the price elasticity of civil aviation demand.The increase of railway speed makes passengers more sensitive to the price of civil aviation,and the price elasticity of civil aviation demand increases.The increase of railway price makes passengers less sensitive to the price of civil aviation,and the price elasticity of civil aviation demand decreases.