The Research On Risk Transmission Mechanism And Risk Prevention And Control Strategies Of Complex Projects Situated In The Inter-Organizational Circumstance

Complex projects(CPs)support the development and transformation of China’s urbanization and meet people’s needs for a better life in terms of living environment,social undertakings,public transportation,and energy security.Such dynamic,open,and integrated complex construction projects encounter many unfavorable interference factors,contain frequent organizational interactions,and suffer strong-probability exposure to various risks in the whole construction progress.Although multiple aspects of CP risk management have been carried out useful explorations theoretically and practically,characteristics and laws of the risk transimission system affected by the inter-organizational work interaction system are still unclear,which makes scientific and effective risk strategies hard to be formulated.Therefore,the complex network(CN)based research approach of CP risk transmission mechanism situated in the inter-organizational circumstance was developed in this paper,and targeted risk prevention and control strategies were proposed in a representative CP case study.First,according to the risk identification framework,71 risk factors and their transmission relationships were obtained by the literature analysis method,based on which the CP risk transmission network model was built.Then,13 types of CP risk vectors were identified and 6 types of CP inter-organizational relationships were quantified by the quesntionaire suevey method,based on which the CP risk vector interaction network model was built.Combined with “vector-risk” causing relationships and “risk-vector” influencing relationships quantified by the literature analysis method,the CP “vector-risk” two-layer CN model was built.Subsequently,network cohesiveness analysis,node influence analysis,and subgroup analysis were carried out on the risk network,vector network,and two-layer network respectively to reveal the overall static model characteristics,which was followed by the link betweenness centrality analysis determining critical vector nodes and the structural hole analysis determining the most unfavorable risk nodes.In accordance with these results,the CP inter-organizational risk transmission mechanism consisting of the global characteristics,critical transmisison nodes,and critical transmisison chains was summarized.Finally,the Leishenshan Hospital Construction Project was taken as the case project,and the case model was built by modifying the original model,after identifying the total 32 organizations by the content analysis method and screening out nonexsistent risk factors by the semi-structured interview method.Immunization analysis and robustness analysis were applied to the case network,and risk prevention and control strategies targeted at the case project were developed based on the optimal immunization mode and robustness improvement mode.The research perspective was innovated by adapting the inter-organization thought to the life-cycle risk management process of CPs.Also,the CP “vector-risk” two-layer CN model was an innovative attempt,which enhances the practical value of two-layer CN theory and analysis techniques.Additionally,the CP risk list,the inter-organizational relationship classification,and risk prevention and control strategies proposed in this paper would help decision makers to strengthen risk and organizational status awareness and ameliorate risk management skills in CPs.