Research On Influencing Factors Of Travel Intention And Behavior Of Urban Conventional Bus

Bus priority has been approved in the worldwide and it is also an important measure to realize green travel under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.The satisfaction about bus service has been increasing year by year,while the bus passenger volume is moderate growth or even decreasing in some cities.The opposite trend indicates that the travel intention and behavior of some residents are inconsistent,and ignoring the deviation will lead the inefficient improvement strategies on bus service.For the purpose of improving the bus travel intention and guaranteeing the consistency between travel intention and behavior,this research focuses on analyzing the influencing factors on bus travel intention for travelers with different combination of intention and behavior,and studying the impacts on bus travel frequency for the travelers with high intention.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Analysis of travel intention of bus based on multiple indicators and multiple causes model.The multiple indicators and multiple causes model(MIMIC)is constructed by using 1130 data of intention survey,and the influencing factors of all respondents’ intention to travel are analyzed.It is found that when the significance level is 0.05,there are 8 variables showing significance,among which age,walking distance and waiting time are negatively related.Education level,direct bus service,punctuality of departure,attitude and perceived behavior control are positively related,and the research results in this part are also used as the control group for the joint analysis of behavior intention.(2)Loyalty analysis of bus travel behavior based on K-means++.This part studies four characteristics,such as the number of swipes,travel days,maximum continuous travel days and maximum travel interval days,and classifies travelers into loyal and disloyal by Kmeans++,and then compares the bus travel characteristics of the two types of people.We found that in terms of travel speed and distance,loyal travelers are significantly higher than disloyal travelers,and the travel time of loyal travelers is shorter than that of disloyal travelers.In addition,the distribution of the two types of travelers is affected by the land use,and the proportion of loyal travelers around schools and aging communities is obviously higher,while the proportion of loyal travelers in areas with large floating population such as transportation hubs and scenic spots is lower.(3)Joint analysis of travel intention and behavior of bus.Through the bus smart card ID and the method of associating and trip chain,the intention survey data is matched with bus smart data,and 619 valid records are obtained.1)Analysis of bus travel intention considering the difference of loyalty.The study establishes MIMIC models for loyal and disloyal travelers to analyze the differences of influencing factors of their travel intention,we found that factors such as high punctuality rate of departure and dense departure frequency have significant positive effects on loyal and disloyal travelers.It is worth noting that the bus stop can keep out the sun and rain,the bus line has a dedicated lane,the bus line has a direct bus and so on have a significant effect on the bus travel intention of loyal travelers.However,disloyal travelers pay more attention to the walking distance,more metro stations around bus stops.2)Analysis of bus travel intention considering the consistency of intention and travel.According to the consistency of travel intention and travel behavior,travelers are divided into four categories:with or without bus travel intention and with or without bus travel behavior(20.52%,33.76%,23.10%and 22.62%respectively),the study analyzes the influencing factors of four types of travelers’ intention to travel by bus and compares the results with those of all travelers.The results show that there are differences among the influencing factors of different types of travelers’ intention to travel.It is worth mentioning that there are public bicycle stops near bus stops,bus stops can shelter from the sun and rain,bus routes are provided with special lanes and other influencing factors,which do not show significant influence in the analysis of all respondents,but have obvious positive influence in some people after classification.3)Analysis of influencing factors of bus travel frequency for users with high travel intention.Based on the results of the questionnaire survey,travelers are divided into travelers with high/low travel intention,and the significant factors affecting the bus travel behavior of travelers with high travel intention are emphatically analyzed.The results show that bus organization factors,such as bus lines with dedicated lanes,direct buses between departure and destination,have a significant positive effect on this type of travelers.