Research On Residents’ Travel Intention And Travel Mode Choice Under The New Energy Vehicle Policy

Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,the state has introduced a series of policies to support new energy vehicles.Driven by the new energy vehicle policy,residents who originally chose other modes of travel turned to new energy vehicles,and residents’ travel behavior changed.Studying the influence mechanism of residents’ travel intention and travel mode selection under the new energy vehicle policy is of great significance to the prediction of residents’ travel mode under the new energy vehicle policy,as well as the formulation and effect prediction of transportation policy.This paper focuses on the mechanism of residents’ attitudes,responses and low-carbon concepts towards the new energy vehicle policy,and the impact on their travel intention and travel mode choice under the new energy vehicle policy.Firstly,according to the research content and objectives of this paper,a survey plan of residents’ travel intention and travel mode choice under the new energy vehicle policy was developed.After screening the survey data for valid data and data testing,statistical analysis of the data showed that compared to five years ago,the use of new energy vehicles reduced the fuel car share by 17.9%,reduced the bus share by 9.8%,and had less impact on the subway and walking and non-motorized share.Then,based on the extended theory of planned behavior,a structural equation model of residents’ travel behavior intention under the new energy vehicle policy is constructed.Multicluster analysis is used to investigate the mechanisms of the influence of policy attitudes,policy responses,and low-carbon concepts on residents’ travel intentions under different travel mode preferences.The results are as follows:(1)residents’ attitudes toward new energy vehicle policies have significant effects on behavioral attitudes,subjective norms,and perceptual behavioral control of groups preferring new energy vehicles and public transportation for travel,thus indirectly affecting behavioral intentions;(2)the stronger the residents’ responses to new energy vehicle policies,the higher their intentions toward new energy vehicle travel and the lower their intentions toward fuel vehicles and public transportation for travel;(3)the stronger the low-carbon concept,the better the travel attitude and higher the travel intention for new energy vehicles and public transportation,and the worse the travel attitude and lower the travel intention for fuel vehicles.Finally,the MNL model that includes personal attributes and travel attributes under the new energy vehicle policy and the ICLV model that adds each latent variable in the extended theory of planned behavior are constructed.By testing the above models,the ICLV model with better explanatory power of the model is preferred for analysis.The study concludes that(1)gender,region,number of vehicles in the household,whether living with the elderly,whether a student,whether a corporate employee,travel cost,and waiting time have significant effects on residents’ travel mode choice.(2)Policy attitude,policy response,and low-carbon concept all directly or indirectly affect residents’ travel intention,but only policy attitude has a significant effect on residents’ travel mode choice.(3)A one-unit increase in policy attitude increases the incidence ratios of residents’ choice of new energy vehicle travel and public transportation travel relative to fuel vehicle travel by 78.5% and 84.7%,respectively.