Research On The Propagation And Control Of Large-area Flight Delay

Large-area flight delay is the difficulty of civil aviation transportation.Large-area flight delay will not only confuse the normal implementation of flight plan,but also disturb the daily order of air traffic network.Bad weather,military activities and other reasons make flight delays inevitable.Analyzing the impact of large-area flight delay and discussing its propagation and control methods are important measures to analyze and deal with large-area flight delay.Airport flight support capability is an important indicator of airport operation level.In order to know the effect of large-area flight delay on the airport,it can be achieved by exploring its impact on the reliability of airport flight support capability.Understanding the mechanism of flight delay propagation is an important prerequisite to deal with the problem of flight delay.Therefore,a large-area flight delay propagation model is established to characterize the characteristics of flight delay propagation.So as to do with the matter of flight delay,it is necessary to define the time to take measures to alleviate the delay,so it is necessary to give a method to predict the occurrence of large-area flight delay.Finally,control measures are demand to reduce flight delay,which can be achieved by studying the optimal control strategy of large-area flight delay.The major operation of the thesis is as below:First of all,the basic knowledge and theories of the propagation and control of large-area flight delay are described.It includes: air traffic network,large-area flight delay,SEIR(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed)model and its applicability analysis,node division and propagation mechanism,Stochastic Games and optimal control theory,which establishes the foundation for the later analysis and discussion.Secondly,in view of Stochastic Games,a new method is proposed to analyze the effect of large-area flight delay on airport flight support capability.By demonstrating the applicability of applying the Stochastic Games theory to analyze the flight delay propagation process,a flight delay propagation model is defined in view of the Stochastic Games,and the character expression for calculating the reliability of airport flight support capability is given,and then the factors affecting the reliability of airport flight support capability when large-area flight delay occurs are clarified.Finally,numerical analysis is used to explore the effect of node state transition probability on the reliability of airport flight support capability,so as to study the effect of large-area flight delay on airport flight support capability.Then,it explores the mechanism of flight delay propagation among airports in the air traffic network.By analyzing the propagation process of flight delay and referring to the theoretical characteristics of SEIR model,the node degree number is introduced to establish a propagation model of large-area flight delay.Firstly,the status of the type conversion of all kinds of nodes in the network after the emergence of large-area flight delay is given,and then the nodes in different initial states are discussed respectively.Thus,the propagation model of large-area flight delay is defined,and how the parameter numbers in the model affect the propagation of flight delay is deeply explored.Therefore,a new method is proposed to predict whether large-area flight delay occur in air traffic network.By describing the basic regeneration number theory,based on the basic theory of SEIR model,the propagation model of large-area flight delay is defined,and a method is given to predict whether the large-area flight delay occurs:calculate the parameter of all kinds of node conversion in a period of time to determine the number of the basic regeneration number,and predict whether the large-area flight delay occurs in a later period according to its number.Taking a large-area flight delay in 2018 as an example,the correctness of the technique is verified.Finally,the optimal control strategy of large-area flight delay transmission is defined.By expounding the basic concept of optimal control theory,the theoretical method of optimal control strategy for large-area flight delay propagation is clarified.Then the optimal control model of large-area flight delay propagation is defined,and the existence of optimal control strategy of its is proved,and the character expression of optimal control of its is given.Through the analysis of an example,it is proved that the optimal control strategy of flight delay can alleviate the large-area flight delay.