| Due to the combination of factors such as the confidence of expected income growth,increasingly convenient visa policy and diversified tourism consumption demand,Chinese residents are no longer satisfied with domestic tourism,and outbound tourism has become an important leisure and entertainment method for Chinese people.With the rapid growth of outbound tourism scale,the tourism consumption demand has been upgraded.People are no longer satisfied with a simple"trip" with a group at a low price,or a non-stop transfer because there is no regular flight route.It is this uptick in consumer demand that has led to charter flights.However,travel agencies are faced with huge risks in carrying out outbound charter travel business.On the other hand,after the development of charter business,it is faced with the airlines’ direct market grab.How to make a balance between the two is the key issue,among which the most important is to open up the choice of chartered routes.This requires the travel agency must do a good job in the decision of the best charter route.However,traditional travel agencies often make market judgment from experience and lack of quantitative forecasting and decision-making methods.Therefore,it is necessary to study how to use quantitative method to make the decision of outbound chartered flights,so as to improve the scientificity of the decision,and to provide operational experience for travel agencies to carry out outbound chartered flights.This article mainly outbound tourist charter flights optimization decision-making as the research object,to tourism,marketing,economics and statistics,decision theory knowledge theory as the instruction,in reference to the existing airline opened up new routes decision-making process,to explore a better able to apply to the whole process of the optimal charter flights outbound tourism decision-making:charter destination tourism market demand forecasting,the travel routes to forecast and the optimal route choice.Through the analysis and empirical analysis of the decision-making process of the optimal route for chartered outbound tourism,the following conclusions are drawn:First,Accurate outbound charter destination tourism market demand forecasting is the precondition of choosing alternative route,BP neural network model in the tourism market demand forecasting effect is remarkable,its accuracy than,moving average,multiple regression and time series of MAPE,P,Z three parameters are high,so the travel agency in the prediction of the tourism market demand,the BP neural network model as a preferred choice.Second,As a destination with large tourism market demand,aha grant ranks first in terms of tourism market demand.However,when the price of products of chartered flights is taken into account and the passenger volume of chartered flights is forecast,Cebu’s airline volume forecast exceeds that of aha grant.It shows that the tourism market demand scale of the place,its passenger growth will not necessarily be higher than other places.It can be seen that the price of chartered flight products is the key to turn the demand of travel market into the actual volume of air transport.Therefore,reasonably setting the price of chartered tourism products is conducive to the transformation of tourism market demand into actual passenger transport volume.Third,when the set pair analysis method solves the decision problem of interval number attribute decision and the decision problem of the mixture of interval number and determined value,it can still make a better decision with less data.Therefore,when a travel agency opens up a new outbound charter route,it can make a decision by using the set pair analysis method when it encounters few historical data and many uncertain information,which can provide a better reference for decision making. |
