Study On The Influence Of Chinese Manufacturing Export Trade On Carbon Emission

At present,global warming threatens the survival and development of mankind,and climate change has become an important topic of concern of the international community.China is one of the world’s highest carbon emitters,accounting for 33% of global carbon emissions in 2021.As the world’s first manufacturing country,Chinese manufacturing industry carbon emission problem is particularly outstanding,its characteristics of high energy consumption caused by the environmental pollution problem has become the low carbon development requirements of obstruction.China has put forward the strategic goal of "double carbon",indicating that efforts should be made to reduce carbon emissions.In order to maintain the export advantage of manufacturing industry,but also to promote the low carbon transformation of global manufacturing industry,our country must deal with the carbon emission problem of manufacturing export trade.It is necessary for this paper to study the function characteristics and influence mechanism of Chinese manufacturing export trade on carbon emission from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Based on the relevant panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)from 2009 to 2019,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s manufacturing export trade and manufacturing carbon emissions,and conducts regression analysis on the sample of30 provinces in order to grasp the overall impact of China’s manufacturing export trade on carbon emissions.After a series of robustness tests,threshold effect tests were carried out,and heterogeneity tests were carried out in 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from three perspectives: region,economic development level and time.Finally,the mechanism of influence of Chinese manufacturing export trade on carbon emissions was explored through intermediary effects.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions: First,the scale of China’s manufacturing export trade shows a trend of fluctuating growth,and the structure of manufacturing trade is dominated by high-tech manufacturing.Carbon emissions of China’s manufacturing industry increased first and then decreased during 2009-2019.The carbon emission of different provinces is significantly different,and the high-carbon regions are mainly distributed in Hebei and Shandong provinces.Second,China’s manufacturing export trade has a threshold effect on carbon emissions.In the three intervals divided by threshold value,the coefficient of China’s manufacturing export trade on carbon emissions presents a trend of first rising and then decreasing,indicating that China’s manufacturing export trade has a significant promoting effect on carbon emissions,and the level of economic development also plays a positive regulating role,showing an inverted U-shaped trend.Third,although the carbon emissions in the eastern region are much higher than those in the western,central and northeast regions,from the perspective of regional heterogeneity,the carbon promotion effect of the manufacturing export trade in the northeast region is the largest.According to the heterogeneity test of economic development level,there is a reverse relationship between economic development level and carbon emission of export trade.From the perspective of time heterogeneity,China’s manufacturing export trade promoted the growth of carbon emissions from 2009 to 2014,and showed a certain inhibitory effect from 2015 to 2019.Fourth,the mechanism is used to test and study the influence of manufacturing export trade on carbon emissions through three effects of trade,namely,scale effect,structure effect and technology effect.The results show that manufacturing export trade promotes the growth of carbon emissions through scale effect and structure effect,while technology effect indirectly inhibits the influence of manufacturing export trade on carbon emissions.In the three effects of trade,scale effect accounts for the largest proportion,so on the whole,Chinese manufacturing export trade promotes carbon emission growth through trade three effects.Based on the above research,this paper suggests that the technological effect of manufacturing export trade should be brought into play to improve the level of scientific and technological innovation.Promote the adjustment of manufacturing export trade structure and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode;Fully understand regional development differences and formulate carbon emission reduction policies according to local conditions;Strengthen the control of air pollution and promote the low-carbon development of manufacturing export trade;Develop a green and low-carbon economy and promote the rational distribution of carbon emission rights.