Research On The Impact Of China’s Manufacturing OFDI On Carbon Emissions

China’s rapid industrialization has led to a rise in carbon emissions,which has had a serious impact on the sustainable development of the economy and society.As a major carbon emitter and the largest developing country,the Chinese government has taken responsibility for reducing emissions and has set targets for "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality".The manufacturing industry is the backbone of China’s national economy and a major emitter of carbon emissions,and its development has led to a huge consumption of resources and a huge volume of carbon emissions.The effect of carbon reduction in the manufacturing sector is directly related to the achievement of China’s ’peak’ and ’carbon neutral’ targets.China’s steadily increasing participation in the global economy has contributed to the rapid development of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),with China becoming a major player in global OFDI.Scholars are increasingly concerned about the environmental effects of Chinese OFDI and have found that Chinese OFDI indirectly affects the carbon emissions of home countries by influencing their economic size,industrial structure and technology levels.In this context,OFDI has become a new way of thinking about carbon reduction in China’s manufacturing sector.In order to explore the effect and mechanism of OFDI in China’s manufacturing industry on China’s manufacturing carbon emissions,this paper firstly concludes that OFDI affects carbon emissions in the home country through three paths: the economic growth effect,the structural optimization effect and the technological progress effect,based on the derivation of the general equilibrium model(CGE)and previous research results.Secondly,the analysis of the current situation of carbon emissions and OFDI in manufacturing industry reveals that the characteristics of carbon emissions and OFDI in manufacturing industry vary among different factor-oriented industries.Finally,a panel data of 28 manufacturing industries in China is selected and a fixed effects model is used to investigate the effects and pathways of OFDI in China’s manufacturing industry on China’s manufacturing carbon emissions.The heterogeneity test is also used to further investigate whether there is industry heterogeneity in the effects and mechanisms of different factor-oriented manufacturing OFDI on carbon emissions.This paper finds that:(1)Chinese manufacturing carbon emissions are mainly found in capital-intensive industries,and Chinese manufacturing OFDI is mainly directed towards developed economies in the form of technology seeking.(2)Chinese manufacturing OFDI has a reverse inhibitory effect on Chinese manufacturing carbon emissions.The impact of manufacturing OFDI on manufacturing carbon emissions has three mechanisms of action: the economic growth effect,the structural optimization effect and the technological progress effect.Among them,the effect of economic growth on carbon emissions is significantly positive,while the effect of structural optimization and technological progress on carbon emissions is significantly negative.(3)The effects and pathways of different factor-oriented manufacturing OFDI on carbon emissions in manufacturing are heterogeneous by industry.Labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries have carbon emission reduction effects,while capital-intensive industries do not have carbon emission reduction effects.Labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries influence carbon emissions through the effects of economic growth,structural optimization and technological progress.Capital-intensive industries,on the other hand,do not have a structural optimization effect,rendering the carbon reduction effect of OFDI ineffective.Based on the above findings,this paper proposes policy recommendations to reduce carbon emissions from manufacturing industries and improve the level of OFDI in manufacturing industries.