Safety Assessment Of The Arctic Northeast Passage

The Arctic Northeast Passage is the shortest route between Northeast Asia and northwest Europe.With global warming,the Northeast Passage will become the first all year-round navigable shipping route in the Arctic.The comprehensive navigation of the Arctic channel will change the existing pattern of world maritime trade,bring huge economic benefits for our country,especially our northern port cities.In June 2017,the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Oceanic Administration released 《 The Maritime Cooperation Plan for the Belt and Road Initiative》,in which the Arctic Shipping routes were identified as one of the three major maritime routes.The Arctic region is rich in natural resources such as oil and gas.On December 8,2017,the Yamal liquefied natural Gas project jointly built by China and Russia went into operation,marking the successful implementation of the first plan of the "Ice Silk Road".With the further deepening and strengthening of exchanges and cooperation between China and Russia in energy development and transportation in the Arctic region,more and more commercial ships will sail on the Northeast Passage of the Arctic in the future.In this context,it is of great practical significance to carry out the navigation safety assessment study of the Northeast Passage for the merchant ships starting in the Arctic region or in Europe.The purpose of this thesis is to study the safety of shipping in the Northeast Passage of the Arctic.After systematically collecting,sorting out and summarizing the research results of relevant institutions and experts domestic and abroad,this thesis makes a detailed analysis and summary.This thesis summarizes the basic situation and water features of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic,and introduces in detail the situation of five sea areas and eleven key straits along the Northeast Passage.Then,this thesis analyzes the hydrometeorology,waterway conditions,navigational aids,ship structure,personnel training and other aspects of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic,and constructs the evaluation index system of the navigation safety of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of navigation safety of Northeast Passage is carried out.In order to obtain the weight of each safety evaluation index,this thesis successively adopts the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy method to assign subjective and objective weights to the evaluation index.Then,the combination weighting method of game theory is introduced,and Nash equilibrium theory is used to optimize the ratio combination of the index weights obtained by AHP and entropy method to obtain the final index weights.This method gives full play to the advantages of subjective and objective weighting methods,makes up for the shortcomings of subjective and objective weighting methods,and makes the research results more practical.Finally,this thesis makes a final evaluation of the navigation safety of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and comes to the conclusion that the navigation safety of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic is average at present,which is close to the poor level from the numerical point of view.Based on the obtained results,some suggestions are put forward to improve the navigation safety of the northeast Arctic passage for the waterway management authorities and shipping companies.