Extension Evaluation Model Of Tailings Pond Dam Failure Risk By Interval Number Ranking And Its Application

Tailings pond is an important production facility of the mine,and its dam failure risk is the key study object of the preventing and resolving safety risk of tailings pond.Therefore,in order to promote the high-quality and safe development of mines,the risk of dam failure of tailings pond should be reasonably analyzed and scientifically evaluated,so as to improve the risk prevention and control ability of dam failure of tailings pond.In view of the complexity of the influencing factors of tailings ponds dam failure risk,the causes of tailings pond dam failure accidents were sorted out.Followed the principles of systemic and purposeful,combined with the frequency statistics of tailings pond dam failure risk indicators in relevant literature,and referred to the current tailing pond industry laws and regulations,a tailing pond dam failure risk evaluation index system is constructed.It consists of primary indicators such as dam instability,flooding and seepage damage,as well as secondary indicators such as dam height and current storage capacity,and the risk level and index level range of tailings pond dam failure are divided,so as to lay a foundation for risk assessment of tailings pond dam failure.In response to the differences in experts’ opinions on the importance ranking of indicators and the relative importance assignment of indicators,the Spearman coefficient was introduced to determine the ideal ranking of indicator importance by following the principle of seeking commonalities while reserving differences and considering the goal of consistency of group decision-making opinions.On this basis,the index weight group decision-making algorithm based on Spearman-G1 method-grey correlation is constructed by using G1 method and grey correlation analysis method,which can reflect the commonness and difference of experts’ opinions,reduce the loss of important information in the decision-making process,and improve the accuracy of weight calculation.To address the interval number ranking problem caused by the ambiguity of expert opinions,the set-pair analysis was introduced to describe the certainty and uncertainty of the six position relationships of interval numbers by using the degree of identity and difference,and the interval number ranking method based on identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC)superiority function is established.On this basis,the evaluation model of tailings pond dam failure risk based on interval number ranking is constructed by using the matter-element extension evaluation method and based on the principle of optimality of the right endpoint of the interval.The evaluation model provides a decision method for improving the accuracy of tailings pond dam failure risk evaluation.The evaluation model was applied to the risk evaluation of six tailing ponds in Hubei Province.The evaluation results showed that: the risk level of the No.1,No.2,No.4,No.5and No.6 tailing ponds were low risk,and the risk level of the No.3 tailing pond was average risk.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual according to the field research,and verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the extension evaluation model of tailings dam failure risk based on interval number ranking.The research results provide a method for the risk assessment oftailings dam failure,and also provide important support for the formulation and improvement of policies and measures for the risk prevention and control of tailings dam failure.