Risk Evaluation Research On Coal Mine Water Disasters Based On AHP-entropy Weight Method Matter-element Extension Model

Recent years have seen the upgrading of technology and equipment of production and the elimination of outdated capacity in the coal industry.For now,the number of coal mine water disasters has deceased year by year but still occurs from time to time.Besides,production finds it difficult to return to its pre-accidental level,which hampers the development of coal enterprises and the increase in economic benefits.Therefore,it is essential to adopt prevention measures: a well-organized risk evaluation system against water hazards is capable of reducing possibilities.This paper conducts researches centered on safety evaluation of water hazard risks in coal mines.Firstly,the present situation of coal mine water disasters from 2011 to 2020 is investigated and analyzed from three dimensions of region,time and ownership structure by means of data statistics.The result is that,water inrush accidents occur frequently in coal mines of Shanxi,Guizhou and Heilongjiang provinces.April is the very month of disasters;there are downward trends in the annual average numbers of both accidents and fatalities in township coal mines even if their figures are higher than other items.This paper,based on statistical results and accident causation theory,builds a coal mine water accident-causing model.Secondly,on the basis of the above research,this paper,combining the theory of“human-machine-environment-management” and the characteristics of deep mining activities,analyzes factors from four perspectives of human,machine,environment and management.Based on the investigation into 69 disaster cases and related literature,this paper screens and classifies influential factors involved and finally concludes a risk evaluation index system including 6 first-level indexes and 30 second-level indexes.Thirdly,this paper builds a risk evaluation model of coal mine water accidents based on the matter-element extension theory.The first step is to determine the weight of each index in accordance with analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method.The second step is to build three matrices of classical domain,joint domain and matter-element extension via MATLAB.Then the assessment grade will be determined after calculating the correlation of indexes and comprehensive correlation degree.In the final part,the above evaluation model is employed to assess the water hazard risk of the sample mine.The risk evaluation shows that the comprehensive correlation degree value of the mine is 2.1559,which,locating between the medium risk and the relatively low risk,is obviously close to the latter one.Based on the analysis of the final evaluation results,the risk control measures in water prevention and control are put forward for reference and guidance for mine water prevention and control.There are 21 pictures,21 diagrams and 93 references in this paper.