Research On Influencing Factors And Path Mechanism Of Urban Green Development Based On Decouling Theory

Under the background of high-quality development and dual carbon targets,the traditional development model of pursuing rapid economic growth at the expense of environmental quality is unsustainable.The critical issue of urban green development is how to decouple resource consumption and carbon emissions from economic and social welfare output.In the context of new development,research on the relationship between resource consumption and the quality of comprehensive urban development based on the perspective of ecological economics threshold theory has become a vital issue for high-quality development.Based on this,this study first evaluates the urban ecological resources by calculating the relevant indicators of ecological footprint;then uses the resource productivity method to obtain the green development indicators of the three major systems of urban economy,society and environment,analyze their evolution characteristics,and describe the main contradictions in the current urban development.Further,using the decoupling index model,the decoupling relationship between resource consumption and the performance output of the three major urban systems is obtained;then uses the LMDI factorization model to decompose the decoupling index into four factors:resource intensity,economic intensity,spatial structure,and population size,and analyze the degree and direction of their influence on the decoupling relationship.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results and the green development experience of advanced cities at home and abroad,the green development path of Chinese megacities is proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the past 20 years,the ecological footprint of the study area showed an "N"-shaped change trend that first increased,then decreased,and then increased,while the ecological carrying capacity showed a changing trend that first decreased rapidly and then decreased slowly,and the former continued to be higher than the latter.The supply and demand of ecological resources do not match,the ecological carrying capacity is low,and the ecological resource is in a state of the ecological deficit during the research period.(2)In the past 20 years,the study area’s per capita GDP and HDI index have been increasing year by year,while the ecological environment capacity has been decreasing year by year.Based on the theory of resource productivity,after considering the pressure of resources and environment,the ecological economic performance first declines slowly and then rises rapidly,and the ecological environment performance and ecological welfare performance show a trend of first declining,then rising and then falling.The green development status index did not follow the ecological economic performance to rise continuously but was restrained by the ecological threshold and welfare threshold and showed a downward trend.(3)The urban green development transformation index(UGDTI)undergoes an "M"-shaped fluctuation process of "negative decoupling-decoupling-strong decoupling-negative decoupling",which corresponds to the "N"-shaped change process of the urban green development status index(UGDSI)that first declines,then rises,and then declines.The process of urban green transformation development has apparent characteristics of four stages of change.In the first stage,the negative decoupling development of cities under the cost of cheap resources and the environment,the level of green development has dropped significantly.The second stage is characteristic of urban decoupling development under rapid economic growth,and the level of green development has increased significantly.The third stage belongs to the urban robust decoupling development model under the cumulative effect,and green development is maintained at a relatively high level.The fourth stage is the negative decoupling of cities under the transformation background,and the level of green development has declined again.(4)From the perspective of ecological economics,constrained by the threshold effect,the relationship between resource demand and urban development quality develops in an inverted "U" shape in time series.Overall,improving urban development quality is dominated by economic factors at the stage of crossing the ecological threshold and environmental factors at the stage of crossing the welfare threshold.There are differences in the role of the threshold effect in different stages of urban development.In the early stage of urban development,the threshold effect has not yet been significantly affected,and the level of commodity and material development mainly dominates the quality of urban development.In the stage of rapid urban development,rapid economic growth has improved urban green development;under the effect of welfare thresholds,economic factors dominate the quality of urban development.Although economic factors still dominate in the post-urban growth stage,environmental factors have also had a significant impact,and the growth rate of urban green development has slowed down.In the stage of urban transformation,the ecological threshold effect is significant and environmental,and welfare factors replace economic factors to occupy the dominant position in the quality of urban development.(5)In the past 20 years,the four driving factors have all promoted the decoupling of economic dimensions,and resource intensity is the main driving factor.Resource intensity and spatial structure are the main factors that promote the development of decoupling in the social dimension,while economic intensity and population factors hinder the development of decoupling in the social dimension,and economic intensity is the main hindering factor.The resource intensity factor is the main factor that promotes decoupling development in the environmental dimension.Economic intensity,spatial structure,and population size are all hindering the development of environmental decoupling,and economic intensity is the main hindering factor.The above conclusions provide theoretical support and a decision-making basis for promoting the green transformation and development of Chinese cities.