Research On The Optimization Of China’s Strategic Natural Gas Reserve Scale Under The Background Of Energy Transition

Natural gas,as transitional energy,has served as the main force in the process of the energy transition with its clean and efficient characteristics.The emergence of energy transition also puts forward higher requirements for the construction of natural gas reserves.Exploring the optimal scale of strategic natural gas reserves under the background of the energy transition is conducive to improving the natural gas reserve system and ensuring national energy security.At present,there are relatively few studies on natural gas reserves,among which the research on the optimal scale of reserves mainly focuses on strategic reserves and lacks attention to seasonal peak-shaving reserves.Closely combined with the general trend of energy transition and development,this study defines the connotation of the strategic natural gas reserve.The dynamic changes of the optimal scale of China’s long-term natural gas strategic reserves before 2060 under four energy transition scenarios,which includes reference scenario,peak carbon dioxide emissions scenario,rapid & sustainable development scenario,and carbon neutrality scenario are analyzed by a nonlinear programming model.The linear programming model is used to explore the optimal scale of China’s short-term natural gas peak-shaving reserves in 2022.The research shows that:(1)At present,the connotation of China’s strategic natural gas reserves has changed.Not only does strategic natural gas reserve include the connotation of traditional strategic reserve,but it also considers the uncertainty of energy transition.(2)Under different energy scenarios,the proportion of China’s long-term strategic natural gas reserves fluctuates between 5% and 16%.The proportion of reserves in the reference scenario is the lowest,and the proportion of reserves in the carbon neutrality scenario is the highest.(3)Under the scenario of carbon neutrality,China’s strategic natural gas reserve possesses the highest superiority,which is reflected in the lowest total cost,large relative reserve scale,and the strongest ability to deal with supply interruption.(4)Compared with 2020,the scale of short-term natural gas peak-shaving reserves should be appropriately increased to 35.37 billion cubic meters in 2022,and the proportion of reserves should be increased to 8.84%.(5)The gap between supply and demand directly affects the stockpiling and release strategy of short-term peak-shaving reserves of natural gas.The policy suggestions are as follows: building a“long-term + short-term” reserve system,strengthening the scientific prediction of natural gas demand,accelerating the construction of natural gas infrastructure,continuously enhancing the intensity of increasing reserves and production in the short term,and implementing special fiscal subsidy policies.