A Comparative Study On Shale Oil Development Between China And The US From Economic Perspective

China’s shale oil started by learning from the experience of the US,but because there are so many differences between Chinese and American shale oil,comparative research needs to be carried out in the process of learning.Scholars have compared differences in geology,technology,and policy,but they have not been able to integrate the differences in these different fields and different natures,and comprehensively evaluate their impacts in a quantitative manner.In order to solve this problem,the paper quantifies the differences in different characteristics and dimensions as the impact on economy from an economic perspective,and thus compares them based on the value quantity dimension.It should be pointed out that in order to focus on unnatural factors such as technology,fiscal and taxation system,and policy,shale oil geological units with similar geological conditions in China and the United States were selected as the comparison objects,namely the Yanchang Formation of the Ordos Basin and the Bakken of the Williston Basin,in addition,the construction of the comparison method will further eliminate the differences in the yield scale and extraction curve caused by the geological impact.At the micro level,the level of shale oil development depends on the profitability of shale oil investments,so financial analysis can also be used to compare the differences between China and the United States.However,traditional financial indicators such as net present value,internal rate of return and payback period are comprehensive evaluation indicators that cannot characterize the internal financial structure,so the impact of various differences and their causes cannot be analyzed.To this end,starting from the correlation between various differentiating factors and economic factors,based on the idea of structural analysis,five economic factors such as drilling and completion investment,surface engineering investment,operating costs,taxes and fees,and the present value of net income are screened out,and the structure index of economic factors is constructed based on the present value of income.Subsequently,the economic factor structure of shale oil wells in China(2020)and the United States at different historical points(2007-2020)was calculated,and a comparative analysis of Sino-US development was conducted,and the driving factors were studied.In addition to financial analysis,the research process also uses scenario analysis,sensitivity analysis,cluster analysis and other methods,of which scenario analysis is used for the analysis of US policy effects and oil price impacts,sensitivity analysis is used for the identification of driving factors,and cluster analysis is used for accurate benchmarking of Sino-US development.Through the above research,the main research results are as follows:(1)the development of China’s shale oil is most similar to that of the United States in 2008,and it is in a period of high cost,greater tax pressure and unsatisfactory income level;(2)the development of shale oil in the United States is mainly driven by high oil prices and policy preferences in the early stage,and the dominant factor in the later period is low cost;(3)the impact of various sensitive factors on the economics of shale oil in China and the United States is similar,and the impact of these factors on Chinese shale oil wells is significantly higher than that of the United States,especially oil price factors.Combined with the experience of the United States and the development stage of China,the development suggestions for China’s shale oil are as follows: barrel oil subsidies can be selected sequentially according to policy efficiency,partial drilling and completion investment costization,and a certain proportion of production tax exemptions to improve the economic expectations of current shale oil exploitation;continue to invest in technology research and development and provide subsidies for low-production wells to support innovation.