Study On The Net Emission Of Carbon Dioxide And It's Driving Factors In China

Today?China and the world are facing the climate warming, energy crisis and other issues.The development of low-carbon economy became the common pursuit of all countries in theworld. China is in a stage of accelerated development of the industrialization? and thehigh-growth industry-based economy has brought the continuously increasing GDP, and at thesame time also brought the increase of carbon emissions. The research of carbon emissionsand its driving factors of spatial pattern and the time evolvement rule can help preferably torecognize the current situation of carbon emissions in China, so as to develop Chineselow-carbon economy, and provide a reference to reduce carbon dioxide emissionscontinuously. This paper launches a series of research work, which is closely aimed at thepaper.The paper is based upon the data compilation and calculation as the foundation of theresearch, the net carbon dioxide emissions and the spatial pattern of each driving factor as thecenter, the Tapio disconnection as the link of the net carbon dioxide emissions and the patternof driving factor, the trend, cause analysis, countermeasures and suggestions as the mainline,the current stage (2005-2012) as the time starting point, and future (2013-2030) as the timeend point. The paper conducts comprehensive study on China's net carbon dioxide emissionsand its driving factors of spatial pattern and the disconnection from multiple perspectives ofeach province, each region, and all over China. It expects to fully understand the status quoand future trend of net carbon dioxide emissions in China, and find out the most importantarising driving factor of the net carbon dioxide emissions now and in the future, and confirmthe potentialities of emissions reduction and responsibilities of emissions reduction in order tocontribute to the development of low-carbon economy in China.The paper includes the following eight chapters:Chapter1introduces the paper's research purpose, research status, research methods andresearch route.Chapter2states relevant concepts and theories that are employed in the paper, and thetheories include the sustainable development theory, energy-economy-environment theory,low carbon economy theory, the disconnection theory etc.Chapter3proposes a calculation method, which is based on mass energy transformationto net carbon dioxide emissions, and this calculation method is simple to use, and accordingto the method, data collecting is easy and the result is accurate. Comparing with the previousscholars, this paper also gives full consideration on different provincial differentiations ofcarbon emission coefficient which based on technology differences and elimination of forestcarbon sequestration against carbon dioxide. The paper carries on the precise calculation ofnet carbon dioxide emissions from29provinces and cities (excluding Xinjiang and Tibet), sixregions(this classification with reference to China's national statistical yearbook classificationmethod), and all over china. In consideration of "the first law of geography”, the paperemploys the global autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation analysis methods to study thefeatures of the spatial correlation to net carbon dioxide emissions, and by introducing thecenter of gravity trajectory analysis method, Xmax-Xmin and variable coefficient analysismethod to analyze net carbon dioxide emissions of the main part changes and the differencesin size of29provinces and cities (excluding Xinjiang and Tibet), six regions, and all over china.Chapter4gives full consideration on the effects of the net carbon sink against carbondioxide emissions, revises the original Kaya model to analyze the change tendency of thedriving factors, spatial correlated characteristics, and differences in size against the energyintensity(it drives net carbon dioxide emissions of all over china, different regions andprovinces and cities), per capita GDP, population quantity, carbon emission coefficient, thesquare meters of forest and green space and so on.Chapter5combines the result of calculation and analysis of Part3and Part4. Thedecoupling relationship between net carbon dioxide emissions and each driving factor isestablished by using Tapio decoupling analysis method. This paper carries through thedecoupling analysis using the Tapio decoupling method and elastic index on all drivingfactors of the net carbon dioxide emissions, and it is distinguished from previous scholarswho only focused on the research between economy and co2emissions. The purpose is to findout the main driving factors that affect net carbon dioxide emissions in a certain period bycomparing the decoupling index of different driving factors and decoupling situation in everyprovince, every region and all over china.Chapter6carries on the predictive analysis on the net carbon dioxide emissions, thechange trends of each driving factor, and the decoupling situation between every drivingfactor and the net emissions of carbon dioxide during the future period before year2020byusing regression forecasting analysis method. It is easy to grasp the future trend of net carbondioxide emissions in China; furthermore it is of benefit to explore the main driving factorwhich will influence net carbon dioxide emissions in the future. The paper also creatively putsforward the "carbon dioxide compensation mechanism” among provinces and cities, anddetermines the "compensation subject","compensation receptors" and " compensationquotas".Chapter7recommends corresponding suggestions on the carbon dioxide emissionreduction countermeasures in allusion to each region, highlighted provinces and all overChina.Chapter8induces and summarizes the entire paper.