An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between Copper Futures And Spot Price Fluctuation In China

As one of the important commodities,copper has a very important impact on China’s economic development.The change of copper spot price is not only affected by various economic factors in the market environment,but also affected by copper futures price.Similarly,the change of copper spot price will also have a certain impact on copper futures.In order to deeply analyze the internal relationship between copper futures and copper spot prices,find the internal influence mechanism between them,and provide an important reference for China’s copper consumer market.This paper will focus on the relationship between copper futures price and copper spot price,analyze the internal influence mechanism,and give enlightenment and suggestions.Based on the research on the relationship between copper futures price and copper spot price,this paper uses the method of regression analysis to analyze the correlation between copper futures price and copper spot price,The results show that:(1)the impact of copper futures price on copper spot price is greater than that of copper spot price on copper futures price;(2)In the bear market and bull market,the impact of copper futures price on copper spot price is different.In the bear market,the impact of copper futures price on copper spot price is significantly greater than that in the bull market;in the bull market,the impact of copper spot price on copper futures price is significantly greater than that in the bear market.This shows that there is a high correlation between copper futures price and copper spot price Further,this paper discusses the long-term and short-term fluctuation relationship between them.By constructing a multivariate GARCH model and selecting the data from January 1,2013 to December 31,2020,this paper analyzes the relationship between copper futures and copper spot prices.The results show that there is a high correlation between the prices of copper futures and copper spot in China,and there is a dynamic correlation between them in the long run.Specifically,in the long run,the spot price of copper is easier to reach the equilibrium price.In the short term,copper futures price has a one-way guiding effect on copper spot price.It is found that the price discovery function of copper futures in China has not been brought into full play.This paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Therefore,this study can provide reference for investors and copper futures market regulators to make scientific and reasonable decisions.