Research On The Relationship Between Chinese And Foreign Crude Oil Futures Prices And China's Crude Oil Spot Price

Crude oil is both an important energy source and a valuable chemical raw material,which is of great significance to the economic development of a country.China is the world's largest importer of crude oil,and its dependence on foreign oil is as high as 70%.However,China has no say in global crude oil pricing,and fluctuations in crude oil prices have seriously endangered our economic security.Therefore,in order to ensure the safety of China's oil prices,enable healthy development of companies in the crude oil industry chain,and promote the market-oriented reform of domestic oil prices,and compete for international crude oil pricing rights,on March 26,2018,crude oil futures were officially listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange.Based on the above background,this article uses the Brent crude oil futures prices in mature foreign crude oil futures markets abroad,China 's Shanghai crude oil futures prices,and China 's Daqing crude oil spot prices as research samples.It uses a vector autoregressive model,impulse response and analysis of variance,co-integration theory,Granger causality test,error correction model and other measurement methods,model and analyze the relationship between the outer disk Brent crude oil futures price and Shanghai crude oil futures price and the domestic Daqing crude oil spot price respectively.Through a comparative analysis,examine China's crude oil futures market Operation.The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the price of Brent crude oil futures and the spot price of Daqing crude oil in China,and that the price of Brent crude oil futures has a one-way guiding effect on the spot price of crude oil in Daqing;Restructuring the relationship,the spot price of Daqing crude oil unidirectionally guided the price of Shanghai crude oil futures.Through empirical results,it is found that the operating efficiency of China's crude oil futures market is lower than that of the Brent crude oil futures market.There are mainly proble ms such as lack of trading entities and lack of standardization of the market.Finally,based on empirical analysis,some policy recommendations are proposed to improve China's crude oil futures market and enhance the price discovery function of China's crude oil futures market,with a view to providing decision-making reference for China's crude oil strategy and enterprises in the crude oil industry chain.