Research On The Impact Of Black Futures Prices On Local Carbon Emission Rights Trading Market Price

In recent years,human beings have gradually realized the importance of controlling carbon emissions with occurrence of various environmental problems and greenhouse effect.China is a main producer of coke and steel in the world,and the governance and supervision of carbon emissions is incumbent upon China.In 2021,Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council pointed out in the government work report to achieve carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060.In order to achieve the carbon neutrality vision with high quality and on time,the carbon emission rights market has begun to show its significance as a low-cost emission reduction tool.The carbon emission rights market is a highly financialized and efficient market system.Its trading activities can maximize the price discovery function of the market and allocate market-oriented factors as much as possible.Compared with carbon emission control,carbon tax,and carbon subsidies and other means,the carbon market is the most suitable way when world is becoming a community with a shared future for mankind.However,compared with foreign carbon markets such as the European Union’s and the United States’,China’s carbon emission rights market has a late start and immature development.And the most regrettable consequence is that market participants such as real enterprises lack vital tools to hedge risks and control costs.The carbon emission rights futures of China have not been launched till now,while all foreign carbon markets have launched carbon futures as a hedging tool when they began to run.Although government began to release signals to plan to list carbon emission rights futures after the national carbon emission rights market began to run,companies’ need for reducing costs has always existed from the planning to the actual launch.Based on this,this paper focuses on the black raw materials such as coal,steel,thermal coal,etc.which are closely related to carbon emissions in the industrial chain of enterprises.Influence relationship,in order to find futures that can play a role similar to or even temporarily replace carbon futures,and provide enterprises with carbon emission rights hedging,so as to achieve the purpose of hedging risks and controlling costs.What’s more,it can also increase the liquidity of the carbon emission rights market,provide direction and experience for the subsequent development of the national carbon market,and help achieve the vision of carbon neutrality.This paper firstly explores the transmission path of black futures’ prices to carbon emission rights’ prices theoretically and logically,and finds that the two prices are theoretically closely and logically linked.The empirical part selects the corresponding futures varieties: the futures’ prices of iron ore,coking coal,ferrosilicon and thermal coal.The range is from June 19,2014 to December 31,2021.Then,perform ADF test and Engle-Granger two-step cointegration test on the data to verify the cointegration relationship between data,and use the ECM error correction model to obtain the shortterm fluctuations of carbon emission rights’ prices and black futures’ prices.Finally,provides countermeasures and suggestions for the improvement and subsequent development of the carbon emission rights market.The results of the study found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Shenzhen carbon emission rights market prices and coking coal,iron ore,and ferrosilicon futures prices.The OLS regression model shows that the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two is negatively correlated.In the error correction model,there is a short-term fluctuation relationship between the price of carbon emission rights in Shenzhen and the prices of coking coal,iron ore and ferrosilicon.The short-term elasticity of coking coal futures price and the price of carbon emission rights in Shenzhen is positive.The short-term elasticity of futures price and ferrosilicon futures price and Shenzhen carbon emission price is negative.The correction mechanism of the three varieties to Shenzhen carbon price is reverse,and the repair speed is slow and there is a certain lag.Therefore,this paper proposes to improve the degree of marketization of the local carbon emission rights market price,strengthen the construction of the bidding system,enrich the financial products of the carbon market,and maintain the continuous construction and optimization of the local carbon market to make important benefits for the national carbon market,advance the vision of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.