| In September 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping announced to the world for the first time the strategic goal of reaching carbon peak by 2030.In February 2023,the State Council formulated the “Action Plan for Achieving Carbon Peaking by 2030”,which includes the“Top Ten Actions for Carbon Peaking” in the industrial sector.At present,China’s industrialization process continues to advance,with high energy consumption,high emissions,and high industrial correlation as its main characteristics.However,the deadline for achieving the carbon peak goal is relatively short and governments at all levels face multiple ecological environment governance goals and emission reduction pressures.Especially in the Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou region,which has lagged behind economic development and fragile ecological environment,the government’s carbon emission reduction task is particularly heavy.How to further promote the suppression of industrial carbon emissions in the Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou region through environmental regulations and effectively implement local government carbon reduction responsibilities is an effective measure to achieve the peak of industrial carbon emissions on schedule or in advance.Based on the theory of environmental regulation,the research takes the industrial carbon emissions Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou region as the research object,builds a theoretical analysis framework of the direct and indirect impact of environmental regulation on industrial carbon emissions,and uses the mesomeric effect model to conduct a stepwise regression test;On this basis,the main energy consumption of industrial terminals from 2005 to 2020 was selected to calculate carbon emissions.By constructing an extended STIRPAT prediction model,combined development scenarios under different comprehensive environmental regulation intensities were set up to predict the peak and peak time points of industrial carbon emissions in the Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou region from 2021 to 2035.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)Environmental regulations have a direct impact on industrial carbon emissions in the Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou region,and indirectly affect industrial carbon emissions through economic development level,industrial structure,energy structure,and technological progress.Environmental regulation indirectly suppresses industrial carbon emissions by optimizing industrial structure and improving technological progress,which is better than economic development level and energy structure.(2)The increase in the number of industrial workers and the improvement in the level of industrial economic development significantly promote industrial carbon emissions;The impact of environmental regulations on industrial carbon emissions is manifested as a “green paradox” in Guizhou,while it is “forced emission reduction” in Yunnan and Guangxi.Under the constraints of environmental regulations,the inhibitory effect of technological progress and energy structure optimization on industrial carbon emissions is more significant than the promoting effect of industrial structure on industrial carbon emissions.(3)Industrial carbon emissions in Guizhou Province cannot reach their peak before 2035.Although they partially reached their peak under the low-carbon development model of weak,medium,and strong environmental regulations,as well as the benchmark development model of strong environmental regulations,they are still less than the historical peak of 21.59 million tons in 2012.The peak time point of industrial carbon emissions in Yunnan Province is concentrated in 2030,with the highest and lowest peaks of37.25 million tons and 34.89 million tons,respectively.Guangxi’s industrial carbon emissions can reach their peak as early as 2025,with a peak of 29.68 million tons.If they reach their peak in 2030,the highest and lowest peaks will be 38.26 million tons and 31.13 million tons,respectively.Under the same development model,with the strengthening of environmental regulations,the peak time of industrial carbon emissions has advanced and decreased. |
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