Research On The Stochastic Convergence And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In China's Eight Major Economic Region

China is a major carbon emitter,facing different pressures to reduce emissions externally and internally.In September 2020,China first proposed the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".However,from the actual situation,China’s carbon emissions are not only high,but also have significant regional differences,and in order to achieve the overall goal of carbon emission reduction and peaking,the emission reduction task needs to be decomposed by regions.Exploring the convergence and influencing factors of China’s regional carbon emissions can clarify the progress of carbon emission convergence in various regions at this stage and provide entry points for emission reduction according to local conditions,so as to realize China’s commitment of "carbon peak by 2030" at an early date.Based on the analysis of the current situation and differences of carbon emissions in China’s eight major economic regions from 1996 to 2019,this thesis establishes a fractional single integer model(ARFIMA(0,d,0)),uses the local Whittle estimation method and its various improved versions to estimate the long-memory parameters,and combines Robinson(1994)test to determine that the relative carbon emissions of each economic zone are longmemory mean recovery processes(although very persistent,it is still a random convergence process in the long run).Or a permanent divergence process.Furthermore,using the methods in Mayoral(2012)and Berkes(2006),this thesis examines whether the slow convergence or lack of convergence of relative carbon emission sequences is real or the result of structural mutations in the deterministic process.In addition,based on the STIRIPAT extended model combined with the PLS-VIP method,the influencing factors of carbon emissions in each economic zone are discussed,which provides a reference for the formulation and optimization of subsequent emission reduction policies.The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows:(1)From 1996 to 2019,there were significant differences in carbon emissions between economic zones.Using the analysis of Theil index,it is found that the overall difference in China’s carbon emissions is generally manifested as a change trend of "fall-rise-fall-rise",and regional differences are the main source of overall differences.In addition,the contribution rate of the Thiel index in the middle reaches of the Yellow River,the northern coastal region and the southwest region is relatively large,and it is the main contributor to regional differences.(2)The empirical results of random convergence show that although the relative carbon emission indicators of the northern coast,the middle reaches of the Yellow River,the southwest region and the northwest region converge,the convergence process is quite long,while the rest of the economic zones do not converge.The Mayoral and Berkes test found that there were breakpoints in the northern coastal carbon emission series,which occurred in 2007,indicating that the carbon emission series in this economic zone is a long memory process of mean recovery,and there are no breakpoints in other economic zone carbon emission series,which is a real long memory process(including infinite memory).(3)The study of the influencing factors of carbon emissions shows that in terms of population factors,population size(P)is an important factor affecting the increase of carbon emissions in other economic regions except the middle reaches of the Yellow River.The impact of urbanization rate(U)on carbon emissions in various economic zones is positive and negative,with the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southern coast being more significant,and inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions in the northeast and northwest regions.In terms of economic factors,industrial structure(I)has the greatest positive impact on carbon emissions in the middle reaches of the Yellow River,while the increase in the proportion of secondary industry in Northwest China is conducive to reducing carbon emissions.The level of economic development(G)is an important factor affecting the difference in carbon emissions between economic zones,with the largest impact being in the northeast region and the smallest being the southern coast.The impact of the energy mix(ES)on regional carbon emissions cannot be ignored;The impact of foreign direct investment(FDI)on carbon emissions differences in economic zones is relatively weak,but it has a greater impact on carbon emissions along the eastern coast.In terms of technical factors,the impact of energy intensity(EI)on carbon emissions in various economic zones is mostly positive,but it has a weak inhibitory effect on the growth of carbon emissions in the eastern coast.The impact of technological progress(T)on carbon emissions in each economic zone is positively driven,and China needs to pay attention to the transformation of scientific and technological theories into scientific and technological achievements.In terms of government factors,government intervention(GR)has a positive incentive effect on the reduction of carbon emissions in most economic regions.Finally,the thesis sorts out the research conclusions and puts forward corresponding emission reduction suggestions,laying a foundation for relevant departments to formulate emission reduction policies with regional characteristics and different emphases.