Evaluation Method Of Emergency Capability For Accident Disasters In Chemical Industry Parks

Chemical parks have gradually become an important support for rapid regional economic growth and a leading mode of industry development.While promoting rapid national economic development,accident disasters occur in chemical parks from time to time,and due to their dense industrial structure,they are prone to the domino effect,causing bad social impacts.In order to reduce the probability and consequences of accident disasters,chemical parks need to have emergency capabilities for accident disasters,and it is particularly important to accurately assess and efficiently improve emergency capabilities.Therefore,this paper proposes a method to assess the emergency capability of chemical parks,by constructing an assessment index system and mathematical model,we quantitatively assess the emergency response capability of chemical parks and determine the weaknesses and optimal improvement paths of the emergency capability,which is important to improve the emergency management of chemical parks.Firstly,by drawing the cross-cause diagram of accident trajectory and the causal loop diagram of accident emergency process,we can grasp the common characteristics and response rules of accident disasters in chemical parks;based on the perspective of"emergency management-safety system",we can determine the research idea of accident disasters emergency response capability in chemical parks;through the multidimensional perspective and the inter-layer relationship of influencing factors,we can construct the three-dimensional structure model of "time-space-object" of accident disasters emergency capability in chemical parks;by combining the common characteristics of accident disasters and emergency response structure model,we can construct the evaluation index system of accident disasters emergency capability in chemical parks and deteermine the concept and connotation of index.Secondly,the evaluation model for each evaluation stage is preferably determined by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of multiple evaluation models.Based on the group AHP evaluation and credibility theory,we construct a subjective weight determination method that combines dynamic and static,use BP neural network algorithm to examine the assigned data and realize objective weight calculation,and use the linear efficacy coefficient method to calculate the combined subjective and objective weights as the final weights of the assessment model;weight the assigned data of the basic indexes and the final weights to determine the emergency response capability level and assessment score of the chemical park,and use the The TOPSIS method was used to analyze and explore the optimal path to improve the emergency response capability of chemical parks.Finally,by analyzing the correlation between the "emergency capability maturity" score and the "integrated safety management and emergency rescue" of the control group in six chemical parks in a city of Shaanxi Province,the linear correlation coefficient was calculated(rxy=0.7869),indicating that the both were significantly correlated.The scientific validity of the assessment method was verified.Based on the evaluation method of the thesis,the software for assessing the maturity of the emergency capability of chemical parks was developed using Visual Basic and MATLAB compilation environment,which provides software technical support for the determination of the maturity of the emergency capability of chemical parks and the design of improvement paths,and realizes the automation of the process and visualization of the results of the evaluation of the emergency capability of chemical parks.