Study Of Comprehensive Assessment Methods For Chemical Industry Park Vulnerability

There are a lot of flammable, explosive and hazard chemicals in chemicalindustry park. Once fire, exploration or leaking of chemicals occurred, they willresult in serious accidents. One of the major reasons responsible for thoseconsequences is the lack the scientific risk assessment. Currently, the regional riskassessment technique is focused on quantitatively analyze hazard sources from theaspect of causing-hazard factor while few from the aspect of sustaining-hazard body.In this thesis, we innovatively advanced a comprehensive vulnerability assessmenttechnique for chemical industry park. This contribution not only provides animportant supplement for the existing regional risk assessment techniques, but alsooffers theoretical evidence and direction for the disaster prevention and emergencyrelief, as well as improvement of regional planning program.In this thesis, chemical industry park was chosen as a subject of study. Bycomparing with the reported results in the related field, the concept, assessmentmethodologies, assessment models, and technical application of chemical industrypark vulnerability have been comprehensively considered. The major work involvedinto the current thesis was summarized as follows:We firstly systematically analyzed the concepts, elements and classic model ofvulnerability. Based on analysis of the characteristics of chemical industry park andenergy release forms and damage scope of chemical accidents, we suggestedvulnerability and the related concepts of chemical industry park specifically targetedto the accident on the basis of energy release theory. three concepts. The threeconcepts of vulnerability of the chemical industry park, personnel (facilities,environmental) vulnerability, personnel (facilities, environmental) fragility and therelation between them were clearly defined.Based on the chemical industry park vulnerability concept, we further discusseda series of factors affecting fragility and exposure of human, facilities andenvironment through comparative analysis of the reported data and accident cases. According to these corresponding analysis results, index systems for chemicalindustry park vulnerability were constructed. Their meanings and quantities of theindexes were discussed in detail. The weight of the index was further determined byAnalytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).From the comprehensive analysis of assessment methods, a novel chemicalindustry park vulnerability assessment method was proposed by means of acombination of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and a principal componentanalysis. As a typical example, a chemical industry park in Qinzhou was evaluatedrespectively. The consistency of results obtained by different methods were checkedwith Spearman rule and further combined in a certain rational manner. Afterconsistency check via Kendall rule with the former results, the combined result wasregarded as the chemical industry park vulnerability assessment results. Morescientific and accurate assessment results could be provided by combination ofassessment methods through more information was used effectively.Considering the vulnerability data characteristics of chemical industry park, wechoose support vector machine (SVM) to construct assessment model for regionalvulnerability. Vulnerability assessment model of chemical industry park wasconstructed with index data collected from Qinzhou chemical industry park as inputdata and combined assessment results as output data. Prediction accuracy rate of thismodel reached96.00%with polynomial Kernel function and degree as2. Thevulnerability assessment model could be used widely since the strong generalizationability.The vulnerability assessment model was applied through Matlab7.0to XiaohuChemical Industry Park. The vulnerability assessment results and the distributionmap of vulnerability were directly generated by this model based on collected indexdata in the chemical industry park. The vulnerability assessment model based onSVM could provide proposal for land use planning and ready to combine with GISfor dynamic vulnerability assessment of the chemical park.