Research On Sensitivity Analysis On Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission Trading Price In China

China is facing increasing international and domestic pressure to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.On September 22,2020,President Xi proposed at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China’s carbon dioxide emissions should reach the peak by 2030 and strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutral by 2060.Carbon emission trading is a market mechanism launched by countries or regions in order to promote the reduction of carbon dioxide.China has set up eight carbon pilot markets,and a national carbon emission trading market launched in 16 July.However,the price formation mechanism of carbon price has not been fully formed in China,so it is necessary to conduct sensitivity analysis on each influencing factor of carbon price in order to fully grasp the market price formation mechanism.The carbon price is a direct manifestation of the operating status of the carbon market.A series of factors such as energy,social environment,and national policies will have varying degrees of impact on the transaction price of carbon dioxide transactions.Especially with the future carbon the launch of financial derivatives,more need to focus on the overall political,economic,social and other environmental factors on the influence of the carbon market prices.This paper selects eight representative carbon markets in China,including traditional energy prices,new energy prices,macroeconomics,weather factors,traditional financial markets,and international carbon futures prices,as well as 14 influencing factors for research,using Gaussian process regression Model modeling.Finally,the Sobol sensitivity analysis method is used to quantitatively analyze the estimated variance of the forecast output,accurately analyze the effect of different influencing factors,and conduct a horizontal comparison of the sensitivity of the factors affecting the price of carbon emission rights in China to study different regional markets.Questions are raised to promote coordinated emission reduction among regions in China,stabilize carbon price fluctuations,implement carbon neutrality,and promote the smooth operation of the national unified carbon market,so as to promote coordinated emission reduction among regions in China according to the actual development of each carbon market combined with the external economic environment in which different carbon pilot markets are located,and provide reference for the improvement of the national unified carbon market.The results of sensitivity analysis show that the first order sensitivity indices of the 14 influencing factors vary in size,but some trends are similar among some carbon pilot markets.In general,EUA,poly silicon price,Brent crude oil,HS300 index and air quality index are the five factors with the highest sensitivity index.Through the horizontal comparison of the eight carbon pilot markets,it is found that the development degree of different carbon pilot markets in China is different,and there is no coordination between regions.The influencing factors of carbon price are also different,and the same influencing factor plays different roles in different carbon pilot markets.At the same time,the sensitivity index of the sensitive factors is not high,indicating that the reaction degree of carbon price to each influencing factor is low,and the reaction mechanism is insufficient.In addition,combined with the external economic environment in which different carbon pilot markets are located,it is found that the transformation of my country’s traditional energy industry is too slow,the current dependence on traditional energy is relatively high,the linkage between traditional financial markets and carbon markets is weak,the degree of connection between low-carbon industries and weather factors is not high,the impact of new energy prices on different carbon pilot markets is quite different,and the development level of new energy industries in different regions is different.Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to ensure the gradual transformation of the traditional energy industry,strengthen the linkage between the traditional financial market and the carbon market,carry out local pilot projects for climate investment and financing,and promote the balanced and stable development of the new energy industry in various regions.