An Empirical Study On Carbon Price Fluctuation Factors And Trend Forecast

In view of the Paris Agreement on climate change,many countries have accelerated the research and establishment of emission trading systems.Focusing on China’s carbon emission trading market,this paper comprehensively analyzes the foundation,trading mode,price formation mechanism and price influencing factors of the current international carbon trading markets,summarizes the establishment and development process of China’s national carbon market,and analyzes the carbon trading market mechanism.This paper also compares and analyzes the similarities and differences of the system design between China’s carbon market and the international carbon markets,summarizes the experience and enlightenment,and put forward suggestions on the management system of the national carbon market suitable for China.Based on the traditional price theory and modern financial theory,this paper discusses the financial attributes of carbon financial products,and clarifies that carbon financial products are the theoretical basis of financial assets.This paper theoretically discusses the driving factors of the price of China’s carbon emission trading.It has conducted in-depth research on how various driving factors affect the carbon trading price in China,combing the literature and using qualitative methods to focus on the impact of energy market,exchange rate market,interest rate market,capital market and other factors on the carbon trading price.The statistical analysis model was used to screen the variables,and the principal component analysis model was used to reduce the dimension reasonably.Finally,energy price,macro-economy,weather and air quality,international carbon price,exchange rate of RMB against US dollar and interest rate are selected as explanatory variables,and the influence mechanism of various influencing factors on carbon price is analyzed by using multiple linear regression model and VAR model,focusing on exploring the influence path of various influencing factors,including the establishment event of carbon marketvirtual variable on carbon price variance decomposition function and other econometric empirical methods are used to test the experimental samples,analyze the difference of the empirical test results,and explore the impact effect of different driving factors on China’s carbon trading price.This paper can supplement and improve the theoretical research framework of China’s carbon trading price,and provide scientific basis for enterprises to implement carbon emission trading.Through empirical analysis,it can be found that the fitting results of the VAR model are predictable,and the accuracy of the model in the test set is high.From an economic point of view,the average price of carbon emissions trading in the eight pilot cities can be predicted mainly through four indicators:PMI,CER,USD RMB and Interest 10.As far as the current internal and external situation is concerned,carbon prices will show an upward trend in the short term.