Research On Policy Simulation Of Green And Low-carbon Development Of Coal Industry Under The Carbon Peak

Coal industry is the basic energy and pillar industry of my country’s national economy,and it is also a high pollution and high energy consumption industry.Under the background of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s commitment to the world’s "carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060" and the global trend of green and low-carbon development.China’s coal industry is facing new challenges and revolutionary changes in green and low-carbon transformation.The political,industrial and academic circles have done a lot of preliminary work and research on the green and low-carbon development of the coal industry,but they have not fundamentally and practically solved the bottleneck problem of the"three highs" of the coal industry.The main reason for this is the government’s incentive measures or restrictions means and other policies are not implemented properly.Therefore,based on the background of carbon peaking,this paper adopts a research paradigm combining qualitative and quantitative,theory and practice,and applies the system dynamics method to systematically study the green and low-carbon development policy of the coal industry.First,systematically sort out the relevant research on the green and low-carbon development policies of the coal industry.Based on the current situation of the green and low-carbon development of the coal industry in China,it also made an in-depth analysis of the green and low-carbon development policies and trends of the coal industry before and after the "carbon peak" in 2020.Secondly,through the analysis of the system boundary and composition content,it is determined that the green and low-carbon system of the coal industry includes five subsystems of economy,society,energy,environment and policy.According to the variables and relationships of various subsystems,a green and low-carbon system dynamics model of the coal industry is constructed.Thirdly,on the basis of simulating the initial state,set policy control factors,and conduct scenario simulations for the green and low-carbon development of the coal industry under single policy,dual policy combination and multi-policy combination.The following research conclusions are drawn:From 2002 to 2019,although coal consumption has been effectively controlled,the proportion of coal consumption in the secondary industry is still very high,and the increase in coal production is also promoting a significant improvement in coal supply and demand,while controlling carbon emissions and pollutants.Some achievements have been made in the total amount,and Carbon Peak has put forward new challenges and requirements for the green and low-carbon development of the coal industry;In the initial state,the coal-dominated energy consumption structure and ecological environment have not been effectively improved in the future.In addition to the total amount of exhaust gas emissions,the total amount of wastewater discharge,total solid waste discharge and total carbon emissions will maintain an increasing trend.Effective policies are needed to promote the green and low-carbon development of the coal industry;Under a single policy,the ranking of the implementation effects of each policy is that tax policy>technical policy>industrial policy>resource policy>initial state;Under the combination of dual policies,the industry-tax policy combination plays a more significant role in restricting coal production and consumption,and the combination of technology-tax policies has a significant effect on environmental pollution and carbon emissions.Under the multi-policy combination,the industry-technology-tax policy combination has the best effect in the three-policy combination,and the four-policy combination is better than all the policies and the simulation effect of the combination.Finally.combined with the results of the policy scenario simulation,some policy suggestions for promoting the green and low-carbon development of the coal industry are put forw ard from the four aspects of adjusting the industrial structure,optimizing the energy structure,encouraging technological innovation and improving the tax and fee system.Through the above research,it will promote the green and low-carbon development of China’s coal industry,and also provide theoretical and methodological support for government departments to formulate and improve coal industry-related policies.