Calculation Of The Spatial Allocation Of Carbon Credits In The Middle And Lower Reaches Of The Yellow River Urban Agglomeration

Carbon emission control,carbon credits allocation and carbon trading market construction are important tools in reducing carbon emissions.There is no perfect allocation method yet on how to make a reasonable allocation of carbon credits and solve the problem of uneven distribution of carbon credits among enterprises.The Yellow River Basin,as an important basin for energy in China,has great potential for carbon reduction efforts.Urban agglomeration are the product of economic clusters and have a significant role to play in the high quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,the study of carbon credits allocation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River urban agglomeration is of great importance for domestic carbon reduction efforts.Based on the current situation of carbon credits allocation research,this paper constructs a carbon credits allocation index system for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River urban agglomeration through the principles of equity,efficiency and sustainability.To address the problem that it is difficult to determine the weight of each indicator in the carbon credits allocation index system and some factors are difficult to quantify,the CRITIC method and the fuzzy preference method are combined to calculate the proportion of carbon credits allocated among urban clusters.The carbon emission problem is a complex non-linear problem.In view of the lack of existing carbon credit index data,a carbon emission model based on LSTM and BP neural network is constructed for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River urban agglomeration,and the data of carbon emission and its various indexes are obtained from2020 to 2030,combining with existing literature.Based on the current guidelines,methods and characteristics of setting the total carbon credits,the total carbon credits for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River urban agglomeration were determined,and then the initial carbon emission credits for each urban agglomeration in 2025 and 2030 were obtained.The experimental results show that the carbon emissions of the Central Plains and Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration are larger than those of the Guanzhong and Jinzhong urban agglomeration,and the overall carbon emissions show an upward trend from 2001 to 2020,with a slower rise in carbon emissions from 2021 to 2030,and are expected to reach a peak in the future,while the carbon emissions of the Guanzhong and Jinzhong urban agglomeration show a smaller change in carbon emissions from 2001 to 2030.After the initial allocation of carbon allowances,the allowances for each city cluster are basically consistent with historical carbon emissions.As carbon emissions have regional spatial mobility.In order to achieve efficient and accurate allocation.This paper analyses the spatial characteristics of indicators based on the Moran index,selects indicators with spatial relationships and incorporates them into the input indicators.And uses the ZSG-DEA model to evaluate the effectiveness of the initial allocation results on the basis of the initial allocation,controlling the total amount of carbon allowances unchanged,so as to achieve the spatial Rational allocation.The experimental results show that after the ZSG-DEA reallocation,the carbon credits for the Guanzhong and Jinzhong urban agglomeration are reduced,while the carbon credits for the Central Plains and Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration are increased.This suggests that additional carbon credits for the Central Plains and Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration are needed to maintain high quality economic growth in the Yellow River Basin.In addition,the overall decrease in carbon credits in 2030 compared to 2025 for the urban agglomerations and the higher initial average efficiency values for carbon credits in each region are closely related to the implementation of future carbon reduction policies.