Evaluation Of Low Carbon Development And Spatial-temporal Heterogeneity Analysis Of Carbon Emission Influencing Factors In Shandong Peninsula City Cluster

Fossil fuels are one of the essential sources of energy in China.In recent years,with the continuous exploitation of various fossil energy sources,the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is increasing,and China is facing increasingly serious environmental problems.Under this background,promoting the transformation of urban development mode to low-carbon direction becomes a significant opportunity.The Shandong Peninsula city cluster is one of the essential urban densities in China.It is both a key area for development in Shandong Province and a national demonstration area for ecological civilization construction.Shandong Peninsula City Cluster should seize the opportunity for innovative development,respond to the policy call,transform the traditional economic development mode,cultivate new development kinetic energy,promote low-carbon transformation and achieve sustainable development.This thesis takes Shandong Peninsula City Cluster as an example,the main research contents are:(1)the carbon emissions of each prefecture-level city in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration were estimated using the IPCC inventory method based on data such as the gross product and energy consumption of 10,000 yuan GDP of each city in the Shandong Statistical Yearbook;(2)the characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of carbon emissions in the counties of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration were analyzed based on remote sensing data of nighttime lights in the study area using GIS technology;(3)16 index factors were selected from the ecological environment status,social development status,energy consumption status,and economic development status,and the low carbon development status of each city was evaluated by using the comprehensive weighted TOPSIS model;(4)using a spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model to calculate the degree of influence of seven influencing factors,namely population density,GDP per capita,industrial structure,energy consumption intensity,urbanization level,road area per capita and green area coverage of built-up areas,on different cities from 2005 to 2017 in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration,and to study the differences in the distribution of carbon emission influencing factors from time and space perspectives.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions:Between 2005 and 2017,carbon emissions in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration generally showed an upward trend,increasing from 370,861,500 tons to 721,126,500 tons.The regional distribution of carbon emissions in each city varies significantly.In addition,the spatial autocorrelation analysis results show a specific positive correlation in the distribution of carbon emission data,and the spatial agglomeration characteristic gradually increases.(2)Evaluation of low-carbon development: The level of low-carbon development of cities in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration shows apparent differences in different cities,with an upward trend in Qingdao,Zibo and Dongying,a downward trend in Rizhao,Weihai,Weifang and Yantai,and a "U" shape change in Jinan.(3)Heterogeneity analysis of influencing factors: The effect of each factor on carbon emissions is not the same,and even the same factor’s effect on carbon emissions varies significantly in different periods and regions.Generally,each influencing factor has both positive promoting and negative inhibiting effects on carbon emissions in each region during the study period.This thesis contains 19 pictures,24 tables and 91 references.