Spatial Temporal Differences Of Carbon Emissions And Influencing Factors Of Government Behavior

With the rapid development of economy,environmental problems are becoming more and more serious.Now we have entered the era of low-carbon economy,the voice of energy conservation and emission reduction is higher and higher.As China’s first economic circle,the coordinated development of economy and environment is the main problem to be solved at present and in the future.Therefore,this paper analyzes the basic situation of energy consumption,carbon emission and government behavior in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Firstly,the paper calculates and analyzes the carbon emissions and energy consumption of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2003 to 2018.Secondly,it uses the two-stage LMDI factor decomposition method to explore the temporal and spatial structural differences and influencing factors of the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Finally,it integrates the Kaya identity and based on the improved STIRPAT model.The fixed effect regression model was adopted to conduct a comprehensive analysis to explore the internal relationship between government behavior and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration during 2007-2018,and the influence ways of government behavior on energy consumption were analyzed from the perspective of the three major industries,and the following conclusions were drawn:(1)During 2003-2018,the growth rate of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration slowed down and the energy consumption structure improved.The total carbon emission of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows a trend of gradual increase at first,and then an unstable decline.The driving effect of economic development on per capita carbon emissions is weakening.The contribution of energy efficiency suppression is maintained at a low level;The inhibiting potential of industrial structure and energy structure on carbon emission is continuously emerging,and the inhibiting effect of industrial structure is more obvious.(2)The potential space for energy efficiency to reduce emissions has narrowed,and the restraining effect of structural factors on carbon emissions has continued to strengthen.According to the result of the factorization,since 2003,energy efficiency has inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in Yangtze river delta,with remarkable energy-saving emission reduction effect,suggests that energy efficiency reductions in Yangtze river delta has improved well released,but carbon emissions through technical innovation to improve energy efficiency potential space is increasingly narrow.The major contribution of industrial structure and energy structure to carbon emission in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has gradually changed from a secondary driving effect to a major inhibiting effect,and the emission reduction effect of structural factors continues to strengthen.(3)Carbon emissions show multipolar differentiation in space.In recent years,the energy structure and industrial structure in Jiangsu Province show a great inhibiting effect,which should continue to pull the inhibiting potential of structural factors.Jiangsu Province’s economic development driving contribution is far higher than the other three provinces and cities.The economic development effect of Shanghai,Zhejiang and Anhui provinces,though not as high as that of Jiangsu province,is also a driving force.Energy efficiency has a inhibiting effect on carbon emissions.Jiangsu and Anhui provinces should pay attention to the improvement of energy efficiency and continue to maintain the inhibiting effect of energy efficiency.(4)Fiscal decentralization and local government competition are not conducive to the Yangtze River Delta carbon emission reduction.The economic development level of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is relatively high.The fiscal decentralization policy makes local governments compete for growth,and the competitive behavior of attracting foreign investment is not conducive to the development of ecological environment,but will promote carbon emissions,reduce environmental preferences,and cause a large number of environmental pollution problems,which verifies the behavioral hypothesis of "competition for growth".The government acts mainly to increase energy consumption through primary and secondary industries,and should strengthen research and development investment in primary and secondary industries to reduce total energy consumption and total carbon emissions.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes to promote structural low-carbon transformation such as industrial structure and energy structure,accelerate the process of regional integration,promote the regional industrial chain of low carbon,establish a regional collaborative emission reduction mechanism,and achieve regional collaborative emission reduction.