Research On Estimating CO₂ Emissions And Energy Consumption Embodied In China-Russia Trade And Their Driving Forces

In 2020,the 14th Five-Year Plan of China proposes to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.As the world’s largest energy consumer,for achieving these targets,China’s CO₂ emissions and energy consumption embodied in foreign trades cannot be ignored.Except developed countries like the U.S.,among developing countries,Russia,as the world’s largest energy exporter,has started lots of cooperation with China in energy and trades.Under the background of“the Belt and Road”,research on CO₂ emissions and energy embodied in China-Russia trade will contribute to China’s foreign energy conservation and emission reduction policies,which,to some extent,could further serve as a reference of cooperation in energy and environmental protection between China and other developing countries.This study quantifies 2000-2014 CO₂ emissions and energy embodied in China-Russia trade with multi-regional input-output model from both overall and industrial perspectives.In terms of relative amount,this paper converts absolute net exports of embodied carbon emissions,embodied energy consumption and goods into percentages by comparing them with total exports of the three indicators of two countries above respectively,and makes a time-series benefit comparison.Finally,a structural decomposition analysis is used to explore main driving forces of changes of embodied CO₂ emissions and embodied energy.On this basis,feasible advice is provided for China’s energy-saving and emission-reduction pathways in China-Russia bilateral trade.According to results,CO₂ emissions and energy consumption embodied in exports from China to Russia have increased dramatically with greater changes,while those from Russia to China varies steadily.Relative percentage of three indicators changes differently in various phases.In Sino-Russia trade,China’s net increased ratio of goods exports is less than net increased ratio of embodied CO₂ emissions,but greater than net increased ratio of embodied energy;while Russia’s net loss of goods exports is basically the same the same as the reduced ratio of embodied CO₂ emissions.However,net embodied energy did not decline but is on the rise with losses of goods exports.According to structural decomposition results,the main driving forces are energy intensity and per capita consumption.In China,most factors promoted the growth of CO₂ emissions and energy consumption.Based on results above,China is supposed to attach importance to technology input of upstream industries and promote industrial upgrading,optimize energy structure and strengthen cooperation with Russia by learning from strong points and offsetting weakness.