Research On Carbon Tax Policy In Hainan Province Based On Computable General Equilibrium Model

As the world’s largest emitter of carbon,China has proposed to achieve the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 in order to address the increasingly serious global warming problem.As one of the national low-carbon pilot provinces and the national ecological civilization pilot zones,Hainan province is actively promoting the achievement of the province’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets.Using input-output tables with two different levels of segmentation for 42 and 149 sectors of Hainan province in 2017,this paper has split and regrouped the provincial industries into 11 industrial sectors as needed for the study.After setting an emissions reduction target,the paper uses the CGE model,to study the impact of a carbon tax on energy use,industry output and macroeconomics in Hainan province after setting an emissions reduction target.The analysis of simulating the carbon tax policy shows that The carbon tax levy has reduced consumption of fossil energy,particularly coal consumption,while oil,gas and thermal power consumption have fallen slightly and low carbon energy consumption has almost unchanged;and the levy accelerated the structural transformation and upgrading of industries,reducing the output of high-carbon emitting industries such as coal,oil and heavy industry,while increasing the output of agriculture,modern services and light industry;the carbon tax levy will reduce CO2 emissions of various industries,which will help Hainan province to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.However,the carbon tax will also have a negative impact on the economic development of Hainan province.Carbon tax double dividend can be achieved by optimising the carbon tax policy and combining the carbon tax rebate mechanism with the carbon trading market mechanism.