The Impact Of Carbon Tax On Macroeconomics And Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction In Yunnan Province

This paper derive from the National Natural Science Foundation of China“Study on groundwater flow simulation based on three-dimensional spatial distribution of fissures”(Project No.41562017).At present,China has become one of the countries with the largest amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the world.In the cause of future economic processes,controlling greenhouse gas emissions will be an issue that China must consider.As an ecological barrier in China and Southeast Asia,the development of Yunnan’s low-carbon economy is conducive to improving the degree of regional environmental security.At present,the task of Yunnan’s low-carbon economic development is more serious: worldwide,especially developed countries,have successively introduced plans to control greenhouse gas emissions and develop a low-carbon economy.Within China,low-carbon policies have gradually formed and relevant indicators are included in the long-term plan for national economic and social development,and Yunnan will also face certain emission reduction indicators in the future development;high-carbon energy such as coal and petroleum account for an absolute share of energy consumption in Yunnan Province,and in the process of accelerating industrialization and modernization,Yunnan Province is in the phase of large-scale infrastructure construction,which has brought about rapid growth in energy demand;Yunnan’s production technology level is not high,and the level of science and technology is relatively backward,which has increased the energy consumption of Yunnan’s economic development and increased it to a certain extent and increased certain unnecessary carbon emission.In this context,it is particularly important to study how to effectively resolve the contradiction between the increase in demand for fossil energy and control of greenhouse gas emissions in Yunnan Province.The Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model is an ideal tool for simulating the economic effects of policy changes.This model can depict the complexchain relationship between various sectors of the national economy and various economic accounts,and can be used to simulate and predict the impact of policy changes on the regional economy.This paper will construct the CGE model of Yunnan Province,simulate the response of regional macroeconomic variables to different carbon tax and tax policies numerically,and provide some simulation basis for regional low-carbon process,policy formulation,and adjustment.The CGE model production module established in this paper uses a five-level CES production function,where the energy level is divided into electric energy and high-carbon energy,and high-carbon energy includes coal and petroleum;residents’ consumption functions use general linear functions;closure uses neoclassical closure rules: assumptions labor and capital prices are endogenous,and the market for factors of production achieves supply equilibrium.The carbon tax collection link is designed as an intermediate module for high-carbon energy input.The ad valorem carbon tax is the ratio of the total tax of each high-carbon energy to the demand value of the energy.The data of this paper is derived from the comprehensively compiled social accounting matrix(SAM).The macro SAM accounts are divided into 9 accounts:activities,commodities,factor inputs,economic entities,savings investments,foreign countries,etc.Among them,the micro social accounting matrix combines activities and commodity accounts,and divided into 9 departments.The CO2 emission data comes from the energy emission coefficients in the Japan Energy Economic Statistics Manual and the China Emission Accounts and Datasets about the two high-carbon energy carbon dioxide emission factors involved in this study.Research shows that the introduction of carbon tax has a greater impact on the primary and secondary industries in Yunnan Province,but the output of the tertiary industry has increased.With the increase of the tax rate,government revenue has increased more than the income of residents and enterprises.Consumption has a large negative impact,and the reduction of social welfare is outstanding;the introduction of carbon tax has reduced the demand for coal and oil in production in Yunnan Province,and increased the demand for electricity and energy;while levying a carbon tax andreducing the regional residents’ income tax can reduce carbon emissions at the same time increase the level of social welfare and realize the "double dividend" of carbon tax.In the long run,the introduction of carbon tax will promote the improvement of energy efficiency and the optimization of the economy and energy structure in Yunnan Province.However,the negative impact on the regional economy in the short term will be more prominent.In order to reduce the impact of carbon tax on the economy of Yunnan Province,the following policy recommendations could be considered: In the future economic development,Yunnan should actively seek clean energy to replace high-carbon energy and optimize the energy consumption structure;implement energy saving and consumption reduction measures to promote energy conservation and efficient use,and the recycling of carbon tax revenue can be actively implemented,such as reducing the tax burden on residents,etc.In the future,the corresponding adjustment and improvement of the tax system should be carried out.