Asymmetric Effects Of Oil Price Shocks On China’s Economic Growth

Oil is regarded as "industrial blood" in modern industry.Since oil come to the industrial society,mankind has become more and more dependent on oil.Frequent exploitation and reckless consumption,military conflicts between oil importing and exporting countries,and the worsening natural environment all make the international crude oil market more fragile and unstable.Every price change has a profound impact on the development of macro-economy.Since the reform and opening up,China has made pioneering efforts on the road of modernization,and its industrial and living standards have improved significantly.Oil has also become one of the indispensable energy and raw materials for China’s development.Every drastic change in international crude oil prices will have a far-reaching impact on China’s economic development.With the increasing dependence on imported oil year by year,the risks in China’s energy security system are also increasing.If these problems can be solved,it will help us further establish the relationship between international crude oil prices and China’s economic development or economic structure adjustment,as well as China’s faster and better development in oil industry while building an energy security system.Against this background,the paper mainly studies the asymmetric impact of crude oil price shock on China’s macro-economy.The research methods mainly include theoretical research,model construction and empirical result analysis.Specifically,the first step is to analyze the theoretical basis of the impact of crude oil price shock on China’s macro-economy,and put forward research hypotheses;The second step is to construct the corresponding empirical model according to the panel modeling theory and quantile research method;The third step is to take 31 provinces and cities in China as the research object and make an empirical analysis based on the monthly data from January 2005 to December 2018.In addition,this paper also decomposes the oil price shock,and divides the oil price shock into three aspects: risk,demand and supply shock.The empirical content includes the statistical characteristic analysis of the selected sample data,unit root and cointegration test,benchmark regression analysis,panel quantile regression analysis,robustness test using different panel quantile regression methods,etc.The results show that the impact of crude oil price has a significant impact on China’s macroeconomic development.The positive shocks of crude oil price will hinder China’s macroeconomic development on the whole,and the negative shocks of crude oil price will promote China’s macroeconomic development on the whole.In addition,the positive and negative shocks of crude oil price on China’s macro-economy are asymmetric,and the impact of positive shocks is greater on the whole.Moreover,the impact of crude oil price shock on China’s macro-economy is heterogeneous.In areas with low and high economic development level,crude oil price shock has a greater impact on China’s macro-economy;In areas with medium level of economic development,the impact of crude oil price shock on macro-economy is small.