Study On The Impact Of Ecological Civilization Construction On Carbon Emission Intensity Under The Dual Carbon Goal And The Mechanism Of Its Effect

In September 2020,President Xi Jinping announced to the international community China’s determination and goal of "achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060"(hereinafter referred to as the The‘Dual Carbon’goal).Although China is still in a period of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation,and there is a great contradiction between energy demand and economic development and the goal of low-carbon transformation in China,achieving the "double carbon target" is a solemn commitment made by China to the rest of the world and has been incorporated into the overall framework of ecological civilisation construction in China.At the same time,the report of the 20 th Party Congress provides a comprehensive and systematic summary of the world-renowned achievements and changes in the construction of ecological civilisation in the past decade of the new era,and discusses in depth the harmonious co-existence of man and nature as an important feature of Chinese modernisation.Therefore,the construction of ecological civilization is one of the "effective ways" to achieve the goal of "dual carbon" in China,while reducing carbon emission intensity is also an important issue and inevitable choice for China to achieve "carbon neutrality" and promote the construction of ecological civilization.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan due to some missing dates,the same below),this thesis firstly constructs a measurement index system in four aspects: economic ecological civilization,political ecological civilization,environmental ecological civilization and social ecological civilization,uses the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to calculate the comprehensive level of ecological civilization construction and analyzes its dynamic evolution trend with kernel density estimation.Based on the "IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories","Guidelines for Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories(Implementation)" and the research results of related scholars,a net carbon emission accounting framework including carbon sources and sinks is constructed to account for the net carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020,and the dynamic evolution trend is analyzed by using standard deviation ellipses;finally,based on relevant theoretical analysis,the research hypothesis is proposed.Finally,the research hypothesis was formulated based on relevant theoretical analysis,and the direct impact and spatial spillover effect of the construction of ecological civilization on carbon emission intensity were empiricallydemonstrated with the help of the double-fixed STIRPAT-SDM model,and the intermediary model was used to reveal the mechanism of the interaction between the construction of ecological civilization and carbon emission intensity,which verified the proposed research hypothesis.Research shows:First,the overall comprehensive level of ecological civilization construction in China’s30 provinces from 2000 to 2020 shows a year-on-year rising trend,and carbon emission intensity shows a year-on-year decreasing trend in the face of rising total carbon emission and GDP;second,the rising level of ecological civilization construction can significantly inhibit the rising carbon emission intensity.At the same time,it shows significant heterogeneity in both space and time,i.e.it significantly shows a suppressive effect on carbon emission intensity in the eastern and central regions,while it is negative but not significant in the western region.the suppressive effect of ecological civilization construction on carbon emission intensity was not significant before 2007,but it showed a significant suppressive effect at the 1% level after ecological civilization construction was elevated to a national strategy in 2007;third Third,the spatial spillover effect of the construction of ecological civilization on carbon emission intensity shows that it can significantly suppress the increase of carbon emission intensity in the region,but it shows a positive spillover effect on the carbon emission of the neighboring regions;fourth,the negative effect mechanism of the construction of ecological civilization on carbon emission intensity has two transmission directions including carbon source(technological innovation,industrial upgrading)and carbon sink(forestry investment intensity,afforestation area)and Fourth,there are two transmission directions and four transmission paths including carbon sources(technological innovation,industrial upgrading)and carbon sinks(forestry investment intensity,afforestation area).Based on the above results,this thesis finds that from 2000 to 2020,the level of ecological civilization construction in China has been improving year by year,and the carbon emission intensity has been decreasing year by year,so the construction of ecological civilization and the double carbon target are complementary to each other.At the same time,the construction of ecological civilization has a negative inhibiting effect on carbon emission intensity and there is a positive spatial spillover effect and it can inhibit the increase of carbon emission intensity through technological innovation,industrial upgrading,forestry investment intensity and afforestation area.Therefore,the following policy recommendations are proposed on how to improve the level of ecological civilization construction in China so as to achieve the "dual carbon goal" : First,a provincial and regional carbon emission cooperation mechanism should be established between provinces and regions to promote the integration of regional ecological civilization construction,so as to jointly reduce carbon emission intensity while promoting ecological civilization construction.In the process of promoting the construction of ecological civilization,efforts should be made to summarize and promote the experience of the early demonstration zones of ecological civilization.Secondly,in order to limit carbon sources,firstly,based on the objective status quo that carbon emissions generated by fossil energy consumption still occupy a great proportion at this stage,the current coal-based energy consumption structure should be optimized and the industrial structure should be optimized,and again by promoting technological progress and innovation,resource utilization efficiency should be enhanced.Finally,the structure of land use should be adjusted and the guidance role of territorial spatial planning should be brought into play.Thirdly,in order to increase carbon sinks,we should strengthen the investigation and research of the natural carbon sink process,explore the mechanism of the role of human factors on the carbon cycle of natural ecosystems,strictly guard the ecological red line,while increasing investment in forestry and building a fair and standardized carbon sink trading market,so as to establish a set of artificial carbon sequestration and sink increase models and national natural carbon sink monitoring standards according to local conditions,and achieve the purpose of increasing carbon sinks.