Research On Driving Factors Of Provincial Power Carbon Emission Change

The power industry is an important pillar industry of the national economic development.With the economic development,the carbon emission pollution problem of the power industry is becoming more and more serious.The research on the driving factors of carbon emission in the power industry has become a hot issue in the field of energy carbon emission.The carbon emissions of regional power industry are mostly calculated directly from the perspective of regional thermal power energy combustion.However,there are a wide range of power transactions between regions.It is more reasonable to analyze the driving factors of power consumption from the perspective of carbon emissions calculated from the consumer side.Analyzing the driving factors of carbon emissions from the perspective of production side and consumption side is more conducive to clarifying the responsibility of carbon emissions.In this paper,the comprehensive index decomposition analysis method and production theory decomposition analysis method are used to analyze the driving factors of China’s provincial production side carbon emissions and consumption side carbon emissions from 2010 to 2018.The main research contents are as follows:First,the carbon emissions of the power industry in 30 provinces of China from 2010 to 2018 are measured from the perspective of production side and consumption side.It is found that the carbon emissions calculated from the perspective of consumption side make the eastern coastal region assume the implicit carbon responsibility of transferring in power,and reduce the implicit carbon responsibility of transferring out power in the western region.Secondly,the ST-IDA model is constructed to analyze the temporal changes and spatial differences of the carbon emission drivers of the provincial power industry from 2010 to 2018,and to compare the drivers of production side carbon emissions and consumption side carbon emissions from a time perspective.It is found that in the production side power carbon emission,the power output effect and thermal power energy structure effect show obvious promotion in time,and the power structure and thermal power energy consumption intensity show obvious inhibition.In space,the effect of electric energy output is the main reason for the spatial difference.In terms of time,the population size effect and economic activity effect play a promoting role,while the power consumption intensity effect and the energy consumption intensity effect of consumable power show a restraining role.Spatially,the effects of population size,economic activity and power consumption intensity all have a great impact on the spatial differences among provinces.On the whole,the consumption effect promotes the growth of carbon emissions in the power industry,while the production effect inhibits the growth of carbon emissions.Through comparison,it can be found that compared with the consumption effect of carbon emissions on the production side,the consumption effect of carbon emissions on the consumption side considering power transfer can make the promotion effect of most power transfer in provinces more obvious,while the promotion effect of most power transfer out provinces decreased.Compared with the production effect of carbon emissions on the production side,the production effect of carbon emissions on the consumption side will have a stronger inhibition on the transfer of electric energy into provinces,but this inhibition is the common result of electric energy in the province and the transfer of electric energy.Finally,the efficiency of DEA calculation is introduced to build an LMDI-PDA model to decompose the carbon emissions on the production side and the carbon emissions on the consumption side from 2010 to 2018,focusing on the analysis of the factors related to efficiency.The results show that the thermal power energy efficiency,thermal power emission efficiency,potential thermal power energy consumption intensity,electric energy consumption efficiency and electric energy saving technology in most provinces have inhibited carbon emissions,while the thermal power energy saving technology and thermal power emission reduction technology in most provinces have promoted carbon emissions,and the potential thermal power fuel emission factors and potential electric energy consumption intensity have not significantly inhibited or promoted on the whole.