Study On Carbon Emissions Risk Assessment And Collaborative Control Benefits Of Cement Enterprises

The cement industry is one of the high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries,which is a pillar industry of traditional economic development.While driving the development of the Chinese economy,it has always faced great pressure to reduce carbon emissions.Compared with international or domestic advanced cement enterprises,many domestic cement enterprises are still at a backward level in terms of production technology,equipment,and management,and they have serious environmental problems.Among the many atmospheric pollutants emitted in cement production,carbon emissions account for the largest proportion.Against this backdrop,in order to effectively identify and evaluate the risk factors that lead to excessive CO₂ emissions from cement enterprises,this paper attempts to explore the causal mechanism of carbon emissions in cement enterprises by coupling the Fault Tree Analysis method in systematic methodology with the Gray Relation Analysis method.Based on field research,clean production audit materials,historical operation,and management data of cement enterprises were obtained.Through the logical deduction reasoning of"and gate"and"or gate",the direct and indirect influencing factors that lead to excessive CO₂ emissions from cement enterprises were identified,and a causal mechanism analysis model of"excessive CO₂emissions from cement enterprises"was constructed.The impact of each basic event on the top event"excessive CO₂ emissions from cement enterprises"was evaluated from both qualitative and quantitative aspects.In order to improve the objectivity and scientificity of quantitative evaluation,this paper proposes and establishes a model for the system and data extraction strategy of the causes of excessive CO₂ emissions in cement enterprises,which is used to determine the probability of the occurrence of basic causal events.For cases where the occurrence probability of individual basic events in the causal mechanism analysis system of"excessive CO₂ emissions in cement enterprises"is difficult to determine,Fuzzy Set Theory is introduced in this paper to overcome the influence of direct subjective experience judgment.The triangular fuzzy membership function is used to characterize the probability interval of basic event occurrence,and the probability of basic events is obtained by solving the defuzzification number.Meanwhile,in order to reduce the deviation of the results of the"excessive CO₂ emissions in cement enterprises"causal mechanism analysis system constructed by using a single method,this paper couples and applies the Fault Tree Analysis method with the gray correlation analysis method.The minimum cut set determined in the Fault Tree Analysis is used as the basis for constructing the feature matrix in Gray Relation Analysis,and the critical importance of basic events obtained in the Fault Tree Analysis is used as the premise for composing the pattern vector to be verified in Gray Relation Analysis.Finally,the gray correlation degree of the basic events is calculated,and the key risk factors affecting the excessive CO₂ emissions in cement enterprises are diagnosed based on this.In addition,because CO₂ and conventional pollutants（SO₂,NOx,PM）have the same root and homology,this paper,based on the National Industrial Energy-saving Technology and Equipment Recommended Catalog,the National Key Energy-saving and Low-carbon Technology Promotion Catalog,and in combination with specific cement enterprises,selected the relevant emission reduction technologies of cement enterprises,and analyzed their ability to reduce conventional atmospheric pollutants while reducing CO₂.In order to evaluate the potential and benefits of the collaborative disposal of conventional air pollutants while reducing CO₂ emissions by the emission reduction technologies of cement enterprises,this paper constructs the collaborative control coordinate system and the cross elasticity evaluation index to indicate the size and degree of the collaborative control of the main emission reduction technologies of cement enterprises.In addition,this paper constructs an energy-environment-economic model,including a comprehensive air pollutant coordinated emission reduction model,a technology cost model,and energy-saving and emission reduction benefit model,to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of the implementation of various emission reduction technologies.This paper applies the above integrated analysis system to a specific cement enterprise in Guangdong Province,analyzes the cause mechanism of carbon emissions of cement enterprises and quantitatively evaluates the collaborative emission reduction technology of cement enterprises to reduce conventional atmospheric pollutants.The analysis results show that"Use of inferior coal（X₁）","High carbon content of carbonate（X₂）""Backward grinding process(X₁₀)"and"Aging grinding equipment(X₁₁)"are the key risk factors causing excessive CO₂ emissions of cement enterprises,with the impact degree of 0.1449,0.1323,0.0611 and0.0611 respectively.From the perspective of collaborative emission reduction capability,the technologies that can reduce CO₂ emissions and control conventional air pollutants in a coordinated manner are"efficient and low-nitrogen combustion technology（T₅）","energy-efficient multi-channel combustion energy-saving technology（T₄）","energy-saving monitoring and optimization system(T₁₃)",and"raw material substitution technology（T₁）".From the perspective of emission reduction cost advantages,the economic benefits of"selective catalytic reduction(T₁₁)","raw material substitution technology（T₁）","fuel substitution technology（T₂）","oxygen-enriched combustion（T₆）",and"new complete set of refractory materials for cement kiln（T₇）"are significant.The average cost of the four emissions reduction technologies is-163.94 yuan/kg,which means that the economic benefit is greater than the investment cost.Based on this,this article proposes targeted prevention and control strategies and optimized emission reduction technologies for the target cement enterprise.The above research is beneficial for providing theoretical support for exploring emission reduction potential for cement enterprises and provides reference for relevant policy-making and management decisions.