| The development of the city is the result of the interaction of internal factors.With the continuous development of social economy,some cities have experienced a series of phenomena such as population reduction,economic shrinkage,decline in central urban areas,and rising unemployment due to economic crisis,industrial structure transformation and environmental deterioration,which have caused extensive research and exploration by scholars.In the new era,China is in the stage of rapid urbanization.However,in recent years,due to factors such as economic recession and population loss,Northeast China has become a growth depression area contrary to China’s economic development.Based on the theory of urban development in China and the West,this study constructs a comprehensive urban development model.According to the statistical yearbook data of each city,the comprehensive urban development index of each city in Northeast China from 2010 to 2019 is calculated,and on this basis,the urban development degree of each city is calculated.The spatial effect of urban development degree in Northeast China is further studied,and the influencing factors are analyzed.The results are as follows:(1)The average CDI of Liaoning Province is at the highest level,better than the other two provinces,followed by Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province.As far as cities are concerned,except Suihua,the urban comprehensive development index in the northeast region is generally on the rise.For the four central cities in the northeast region,Shenyang has the highest CDI of 0.673,which is the highest among the cities in the northeast region,followed by Dalian.The city is 0.604,the third is Changchun City 0.554,and the fourth is Harbin City 0.521.The comprehensive development level of these four cities is due to other cities.In terms of development degree,in terms of its provinces,the urban development degree of Liaoning Province is 0.53%,ranking first in the three northeastern provinces.The urban development degree of Heilongjiang Province is 0.52 %,second only to Liaoning Province,and Jilin Province is the third.Its urban development degree is 0.40%;in addition to Anshan City,Suihua,Mudanjiang City and Jilin City are in a mild contraction state,the remaining cities are in a mild growth stage,of which Dalian City,Changchun City,Shenyang City,Panjin reached a moderate growth level.In addition,this study also noted that due to the economic growth rate from high-speed to medium-high-speed development,the economic and industrial structure was upgraded and transformed.In2015-2016,the CDI of many cities in Liaoning Province decreased,from growth development to contraction development.Subsequently,this situation also appeared in Heilongjiang Province and Jilin City in 2017-2019,but after the adjustment,the city gradually returned to a state of growth and development.(2)From 2011 to 2015,the global Moran index of urban development degree in Northeast China showed an upward trend,and the spatial correlation between cities gradually increased.From 2015 to 2017,the global Moran index of urban development degree in Northeast China decreased compared with previous years.This is due to the adjustment of economic and industrial structure by cities.The city temporarily entered a state of contraction,which had a great impact on the global Moran index.However,from 2017 to 2019,the global Moran index of urban development degree in Northeast China increased from 0.242 to 0.502,indicating that after the adjustment of economic structure.The spatial correlation of each region began to increase again.In addition,through local correlation analysis,it can be found that on the one hand,the economic and social development model between resource-based cities is relatively single,and excessive dependence on resources will cause these cities to fall into a shrinking state;the coupling relationship between some cities is not strong,the cooperative relationship between cities is not prominent,and the development of surrounding cities is not obvious;in addition,some central cities,the higher the degree of development and the deeper the connection with the surrounding cities,the more obvious the impact on the development of the surrounding cities after the adjustment of the economy and industry.On the other hand,the adjustment of economic structure in Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province is later than that in Liaoning Province,and the corresponding contraction period is later;most cities return to growth after economic and industrial adjustment,which fully shows that urban shrinkage is a dynamic process,and cities will continue to grow after a short period of shrinkage.(3)The total population and population growth rate are always positively correlated with urban development.Especially after economic and industrial adjustment,the demand for population in Northeast China has greatly increased.The increase of population can quickly promote economic growth and drive urban development.Medical and health conditions are positively correlated with urban development,and basic medical services can largely promote urban development.The three indicators of per capita water supply,green coverage of built-up areas,and per capita drainage pipeline length under basic resilience are positively correlated with urban development,and the correlation is gradually increasing,which further reflects that urban resilience has been paid more and more attention in urban construction.As the content of continuous enrichment of urban development in recent years,it is of great significance to improve urban quality,promote urban“economy-ecology-security” coupling and coordination,and promote sustainable development.Population unemployment rate,industrial waste water discharge and industrial waste gas discharge are negatively correlated with urban development,which mainly affects urban development by increasing population loss,destroying ecological environment and reducing ecological dividend.However,with the adjustment of economy and industry,this negative effect will gradually weaken.The indicators in the economic dimension play a positive role in urban development and play a leading role in all factors.However,with the industrial transformation and upgrading,the economic vitality dominated by high-tech industries is playing an increasingly important role in urban economic construction.It is also worth noting that the effective implementation of policies can solve various problems encountered in the process of urban development and help to avoid the past " growth first,governance later " model.The policy mechanism from “response-implementation” to“re-response-re-implementation” is an important guarantee for promoting sustainable urban development. |
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