The Effect Of Environmental Regulation On Labor Mobility

In the available literature,there were great changes in China’s labor mobility.The direction of labor mobility in China was from central and western China to east part of China in early years,which was called "Peacock flying to the southeast".However,some studies demonstrated that labor force started to move from eastern China to the central and western region with the continuous alterations of national policies,economic development and the environmental quality in recent years.Meanwhile,there were also changes occurred in China’s industrial distribution.The trend of industry relocation started to agglomerate back to central and western China instead of ahead to eastern region in previous period of time.Labor force was one of the significant factors of China’s economic development,and the study of the direction of labor mobility and spatial distribution was an essential topic in China.The discussion about the impact of"the eleventh Five-Year Plan" Chemical Oxygen Demand reduction policy on labor mobility based on the mechanisms of industrial and pollution relocation in this thesis provided a brand-new scientific perspective and theoretical basis for the academia and government.This thesis made innovations in research perspective,method and applied value by systematically sorting available literature and theoretical hypothesis related to the effect of environmental regulation on labor mobility,and combining with relative China’s environmental regulation policy background.For the research perspective,this thesis innovated in the impact path of environmental regulation on labor mobility,and studied the mesomeric effect of industrial and pollution relocation,hence widened the vision of literature.For the research method,this thesis regarded "the eleventh Five-Year Plan" COD reduction policy as an exogenous policy shock to study the effect of environmental regulation intensity on labor mobility,and avoided the probable endogenous problem caused by environmental regulation itself and the measurement criteria.For the applied value,as the available literature related to the effect of environmental pollution on labor mobility was limited to air pollutants,this thesis studied the effect of water-pollution-relating environmental regulation intensity on labor mobility based on "the eleventh Five-Year Plan" COD reduction policy,which could enrich the comprehension of the impact of water-pollution-relating environmental regulation on labor migration decision in the academia.For the empirical research,this thesis used relative data of China’s Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and China’s Urban Statistical Yearbook for the period from 2004 to 2009,took 85 cities in Yangtze River Basin as samples,pointed at"the eleventh Five-Year Plan" COD reduction policy,and studied the effect of environmental regulation intensity on labor mobility and its two impact path,which were industrial and pollution relocation,through the Generalized Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference Model.Robustness was tested by Common Trend Test,enlarging the sample size,the Placebo Test,and the spatial distribution of regulation intensity.And for heterogeneity analysis,this thesis further researched in area,upstream and downstream regions of the river,and industrial heterogeneity.The empirical results showed that environmental regulation in "the eleventh Five-Year Plan" COD reduction policy promoted labor force in COD-polluting industries to move from downstream to upstream in Yangtze River Basin.Environmental regulation effected labor mobility by two mechanisms which were industrial and pollution relocation.For the mechanism of industrial relocation,environmental regulation promoted labor force in COD-polluting industries to flow to upstream area in Yangtze River Basin with lower regulation intensity by encouraging relative industries to flow as the same trend,which had the same effect as the total and direct effect and was partial mediation effect.For the mechanism of pollution relocation,the phenomenon of industrial agglomeration to the upstream area caused by environmental regulation resulted in pollution agglomeration to the upstream area,and inhibited the inflow of labor force to the upstream,but this mediation effect appeared to be a masking effect,which was the opposite of the total and direct effect.Moreover,this thesis did extended analysis in geographical heterogeneity,upstream and downstream region heterogeneity,COD-polluting industry heterogeneity and other non-COD-related water-polluting industry heterogeneity:the policy had a more significant effect on COD-polluting industries in eastern and downstream area;as for COD-polluting industry heterogeneity,the policy had a more significant effect on beverage production,textile,pulp and paper production,medical and pharmaceutical industry;and the policy also had a significant impact on non-COD-related water-polluting industries as well.Policy recommendations were made based on conclusions above.Firstly,the downstream region out of which labor force flew shall prepare for and respond to the declining demographic dividend and industrial outflow,such as optimizing job market and unemployment assistance,promoting the innovation of green production and pollutant discharge technology,and consummating industrial structure.Secondly,governments in upstream region could set up proper talent introduction and investment promotion policies to carry on the inflow of labor and COD-polluting industries,perfect industrial supporting facilities,optimize industrial structure,support clean technology innovation,and strengthen the supervision of environmental quality in upstream area to avoid becoming"Pollution Heaven".Thirdly,this thesis suggested that government could pay more attention to industry relocation and COD emissions in specific industries,including beverage production,textile,pulp and paper production,medical and pharmaceutical industry and three non-COD-related water-polluting industries,which are ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,and petroleum processing,coking,and nuclear fuel processing industry.Finally,combined with recent environmental and economic situation of "Carbon Peaking,Carbon Neutrality",relevant departments shall optimize industrial structure,undertake labor mobility,improve the carbon emission trading market,consummate the talent introduction system,promote industrial transformation and technological upgrading,optimize industrial structure,and promote the substitution of traditional energy such as coal with new energy,thereby achieving the dual dividends of environment and economy.