| The manufacturing industry is an important component of industry,representing a country’s productivity level and production technology level,an important indicator that distinguishes developing and developed countries,and a major source of carbon emissions.In the context of global advocacy of green and low-carbon development,the manufacturing industry is an important field for China to achieve the"dual carbon"goal.Gansu Province is an old industrial base in northwest China,and the industry manufacturing plays an important role in the economic development of Gansu Province.Currently,the development of the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province has slowed down,and there is great pressure to achieve carbon emission reduction targets.Therefore,studying how to achieve efficient and low-carbon development of the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province has profound significance.This paper takes the overall manufacturing industry in Gansu Province,as well as28 manufacturing industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,black metal smelting and rolling processing industry,as the research objects.Firstly,the current situation of manufacturing economy,energy consumption,and carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2020 is analyzed,and the decoupling relationship between economy,energy consumption and carbon emissions is studied;secondly,the Super-Efficiency SBM model(Super-Efficiency Slack-Based Measure model)with unexpected outputs is used to evaluate the carbon emission efficiency of the manufacturing industry as a whole and 28 industries in Gansu Province.The 28industries are clustered into three categories of high,medium,and low efficiency,and further explore the factors that affect the carbon emission efficiency of the manufacturing industry as a whole and the three categories of high,medium,and low efficiency industries;finally,the LMDI decomposition method(Logarithmic mean Divisia Index decomposition)is used to study the impact of five factors including economic growth,industry structure,energy intensity,energy structure,and energy carbon emission coefficient,as well as the contribution of three categories of industries with high,medium,and low efficiency to the overall carbon emission change of the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province,find the key path of carbon emission reduction,and simulate the change of carbon emission in 2025 and 2030 under different scenarios.The main conclusions drawn in this paper are as follows:(1)From 2011 to 2020,the level of energy low-carbon of the overall manufacturing industry and 28 manufacturing industries in Gansu Province is superior to the level of economic low-carbon and the level of energy-saving.The reason is that throughout the entire study period,the proportion of clean energy consumption in the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province continued to increase,and during the"12th Five Year Plan"to"13th Five Year Plan"period,the economic decline of manufacturing industry in Gansu Province is higher than the reduction of energy consumption and carbon emissions.(2)The average carbon emission efficiency of the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2020 is 0.8901,which is a good performance;the total industrial output value,energy consumption,and carbon emissions are the main factors that affect the overall carbon emission efficiency of the manufacturing industry.There is a significant difference in carbon emission efficiency among 28 manufacturing industries in Gansu Province,with an average carbon emission efficiency of 0.1804,indicating great potential for improvement;the main factors that affect the carbon emission efficiency of high,medium,and low efficiency industries are different,mainly related to the characteristics of industry categories.(3)The main reasons for the increase in carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province are the economic growth of low efficiency industries and the high proportion of medium efficiency industries,with an increase of 813.47×10~4 t and 892.04×10~4 t of carbon emissions,respectively;the low energy intensity of medium efficiency industries,the adjustment and optimization of the overall energy structure and energy carbon emission coefficient of the manufacturing industry are the main reasons for the reduction of carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province,reducing 500.77×10~4 t,682.47×10~4 t and 667.45×10~4 t of carbon emissions respectively.The key path of carbon emission reduction in manufacturing industry in Gansu Province lies in:avoiding large-scale expansion of low efficiency industries;reduce the proportion of industries with medium efficiency;reduce energy intensity of high efficiency industries and low efficiency industries;optimize the overall energy structure of the manufacturing industry;reduce the overall energy carbon emission coefficient of the manufacturing industry.(4)Multi-scenario simulation based on existing 2025 planning targets,under the optimal development scenario(comprehensive measures),in 2025,the carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province will increase by753.66×10~4 t compared to 2020,which cannot achieve the carbon peak target.Based on the optimal development scenario(comprehensive measures)in 2025,optimize the2030 development goals,simulation results show that under optimized scenario,the carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry in Gansu Province in 2030 will only increase by 4.86×10~4 t compared to 2020,which can achieve(near)carbon peak. |
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