Analysis On The Characteristics Of Motor Vehicle Pollution Emissions And Environmental Impact Prediction Of Main Urban Area In Xigu,Lanzhou

This study takes motor vehicle pollution emissions in the main urban area of Xigu,Lanzhou as the research object,combines research and analysis,linear calculation,numerical prediction and model prediction to identify the emission characteristics of motor vehicle pollution in the main urban area of Xigu,predicts the environmental impact of different emission reduction scenarios,and explores efficient countermeasures to prevent and control motor vehicle pollution emissions.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:（1）The air quality of main urban area of Xigu,Lanzhou was studied.The results showed that the annual average values of PM₁₀,PM_2.5,SO₂,NO₂ and CO in Xigu District decreased year by year during 2015 to 2021,and the annual average value of O₃ increased and then decreased,but the annual average values of NO₂,PM₁₀,PM_2.5and O₃ still exceeded the standard.（2）The motorized pollution emission sharing rate of Xigu main urban area in 2021was calculated according to vehicle type and fuel type respectively.The results show that diesel-fueled large buses,micro and light trucks,and heavy trucks are the main motor vehicle pollution emissions.At the same time,because of the large number of micro and small passenger vehicles,their pollution emissions are larger and are also the focus of emission reduction.（3）A GM（1,1）gray prediction model was used to predict the motor vehicle ownership in the main urban area of Xigu in 2025,and a linear calculation method was used to obtain the motor vehicle pollution emissions in the main urban area of Xigu in2025.Comparing the motor vehicle pollution emissions under different emission reduction scenarios,it was found that the highest reduction rate was achieved under the scenario of"High Standard Replacement",the next under the scenario of"Alternative Energy Replacement",and the last under the scenario of"Public Transport Priority".（4）Using the AERMOD model to predict the air quality under different emission reduction scenarios,the results show that the NO₂,PM₁₀,PM_2.5,and O₃ standards in main urban area of Xigu cannot be achieved under a single emission reduction scenario,and only under a composite scenario with the superposition of three scenarios can the NO₂,PM₁₀,PM_2.5,and O₃ standards be nearly achieved.In the actual control of motor vehicle pollution emissions,a variety of emission reduction measures should be combined to achieve"multiple measures,scientific compliance".（5）Based on the characteristics of motor vehicle exhaust pollution emission in the main urban area of Xigu,the prediction results of motor vehicle pollution emission and its environmental impact,combined with the relevant local policies and norms,we propose countermeasures to prevent motor vehicle pollution emission in the main urban area of Xigu from three aspects:developing public transportation,improving motor vehicle emission standards and controlling motor vehicle ownership.