Configuration Path Of Affecting Factors On General Aviation Safety Accidents

In recent years,with the strong support of national and local governments,China’s general aviation industry has developed rapidly,and has become the focus of the next stage of civil aviation industry development.However,due to the characteristics of complex airspace use,unstable operation time,and lack of experience in the development stage,the incidence of safety accidents in China’s general aviation is much higher than that of civil aviation transportation,and general aviation safety has increasingly become the focus of social attention.In view of the fact that general aviation safety accidents are often the result of multi-factor linkage system,based on the perspective of configuration,this paper comprehensively uses QCA and Bayesian network methods to study the factor path and management optimization of general aviation safety accidents.(1)Determination of influencing factors of general aviation safety accidents based on cases.Firstly,according to the accident case report,the basic index pool of the accident severity affecting general aviation safety was constructed.Then,the classification and regression tree(CART)was used to verify and analyze the basic indicators,and it was found that the IV values of all indicators were within the range of correlation significance,which proved that the above indicators had different degrees of influence on the severity of general aviation safety accidents.Finally,the REASON model theory is used to classify the above indexes and determine the index system of influencing factors of general aviation safety accidents.(2)Configuration path of general aviation safety accidents based on QCA.Firstly,based on the index system of influencing factors of general aviation safety accidents constructed above,the antecedent variables and outcome variables of general aviation safety accidents are further analyzed and determined,and the qualitative data of collected cases are encoded according to the assignment rules,so as to meet the needs of QCA configuration analysis and operation.Then,on the basis of necessity analysis of each antecedent variable,Boolean truth table is constructed for fuzzy set data with the help of clear set truth table,and the contradictory configuration is analyzed and processed.Then,the QCA configuration analysis software is used to generate the combination of causes of serious accidents and general accidents in general aviation,and the configuration path of general aviation safety accidents is obtained.Finally,the generated path is studied from two aspects: serious and general.(3)Bayesian network analysis of configuration path factors of general aviation safety accidents based on configuration path.In view of the different effects of various factors in the configuration path on the occurrence of general aviation safety accidents,based on the transformation of the configuration path into the Bayesian network model,the importance of each influencing factor is analyzed by using Bayesian probability and significance analysis method,and the importance ranking results of each influencing factor are obtained,which can provide a reference for the decision-making of the management optimization of general aviation safety.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)Verify the basic indicator pool with CART.Since the CART method carries out data analysis from the case,it is more objective than the traditional analysis methods such as literature induction and questionnaire survey,and can reduce the subjective influence factors of people to a certain extent.(2)Study on influencing factors of general aviation safety accidents from the perspective of configuration.Because QCA can obtain the asymmetric causal relationship of many-to-one,compared with the traditional method which can only obtain the symmetrical causal relationship of one-to-one,the analysis results are not only more consistent with the actual reality of the occurrence of general aviation safety accidents,but also can reveal the internal mechanism of influencing factors of general aviation safety accidents.It can provide more reliable decision reference information for general aviation safety management.