Study On The Impact Of Economic Complexity On Dioxide Emissions

In recent years,China’s carbon dioxide emissions continue to rank first in the world,and the situation of carbon emission reduction is becoming more and more urgent."In the 14 th Five-Year Plan,it is proposed that China’s carbon dioxide emissions will strive to peak by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060.As the economic complexity is an important factor affecting CO2 emissions,studying the impact of economic complexity on CO2 emissions can help achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,which is conducive to the development of low-carbon economy and sustainable economy.China aims to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.As an important factor affecting CO2 emissions,studying the impact of economic complexity on CO2 emissions can help achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and contribute to the development of a low-carbon and sustainable economy.This paper firstly elaborates on the theoretical mechanism of economic complexity affecting CO2 emissions,analyzes the possible complex influence mechanism of economic complexity on CO2 emissions,and points out that economic complexity can indirectly affect CO2 emissions by influencing economic growth,industrial structure and other factors.Secondly,a descriptive statistical analysis of the current situation of global CO2 emissions is conducted.And the reflection method is used to calculate the economic complexity of 16 major exporting countries including Russia,the Netherlands,Switzerland,Germany,France,Spain,the UK,Italy,Canada,the US,Mexico,China,Japan,India,South Korea,and Singapore to provide data support for the empirical analysis below.Then,in order to explore the aggregate effect of economic complexity on CO2 emissions,a regression model based on static panel data is constructed in this paper,and a substitution of explanatory variables is used to conduct robustness tests to exclude the interference of other factors on the results.Second,considering the possible path dependence of CO2 emissions and the possible endogeneity between variables,this paper introduces the first-order lag term of CO2 emissions to construct a regression model based on dynamic panel data,and estimates it based on the systematic GMM method to improve the estimation efficiency and accuracy.Economic complexity shows a significant inhibitory effect on CO2 emissions under both models.Also CO2 emissions do have an inertial effect,i.e.,CO2 emissions in the previous period positively affect CO2 emissions in the current period.Then,in order to further investigate the specific influence mechanism of economic complexity on CO2 emissions,this paper introduces economic growth and industrial structure as mediating variables and constructs corresponding mediating effect models to test them.The results show that economic complexity can increase carbon emissions by promoting economic growth,but it can also reduce carbon emissions by optimizing industrial structure and improving energy structure.Finally,based on the research results,this paper suggests that we should strengthen international cooperation and formulate carbon dioxide emission policies according to local conditions;help improve economic complexity from all aspects and multiple angles;increase the use of clean energy and optimize energy structure;give full play to government power to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure;and raise public awareness of environmental protection and promote energy conservation and emission reduction.