Research On The Demand Forecast Of Environmental Pollution Liability Insurance Based On WOA-BP Neural Network

Since the Industrial Revolution,human economic activities have caused a sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions year by year,resulting in frequent occurrence of natural disasters such as extreme weather and abnormal crop growth,which has seriously damaged the survival and development environment of mankind.People have gradually realized the necessity of green and low-carbon economic development.As a representative type of green insurance,environmental pollution liability has unique advantages in preventing and controlling environmental pollution and providing financial support,which can effectively promote the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.Currently.Due to the development of this insurance is not mature,the degree of protection and the rate system are not perfect,and the number of enterprises that have insured against this insurance is relatively small.However,with the green development of enterprises,their enthusiasm for purchasing environmental pollution liability insurance has continuously increased,and the demand for environmental pollution liability insurance has continuously increased.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors and changing rules of the demand for environmental pollution liability insurance,so as to achieve effective prediction of its future development trend.On the one hand,it has enriched the research content and direction of environmental pollution liability insurance,On the other hand,it can help the government and insurance companies better promote the promotion and implementation of this insurance.The main research content of this article is to effectively predict the demand for environmental pollution liability insurance using an improved BP neural network model.The first part summarizes the academic literature on the development and demand forecasting of this insurance at home and abroad,accurately grasping the current research situation in this field at home and abroad.The second part elaborates the relevant concepts and theories of environmental pollution liability insurance demand,and compares and analyzes traditional prediction models.The third part qualitatively analyzes the demand for environmental pollution liability insurance: Firstly,it introduces the development and existing problems of environmental pollution liability insurance in China in detail;The second is to analyze the demand characteristics of environmental pollution liability insurance in the context of "3060";Third,conduct in-depth qualitative research on the main factors affecting the demand for environmental pollution liability insurance.The fourth part first selects quantifiable influencing factors as explanatory variables,and then uses a standard BP neural network model to predict the demand for this insurance.Then,using the Whale Algorithm(WOA),the prediction results are further optimized,and compared with the prediction results using traditional prediction models.Finally,based on the previous theoretical and empirical research,we draw conclusions and propose targeted recommendations.The research results show that the standard BP neural network model has a poor prediction effect on the demand for environmental pollution liability insurance.Therefore,by using the Whale algorithm and adjusting relevant parameters,a more accurate prediction effect is ultimately achieved.In addition,through comparative analysis,it is found that the prediction effect of the WOA-BP neural network model is superior to the traditional prediction model,achieving the optimal prediction.Finally,the demand for this insurance in the next five years is predicted,and the results show that the demand for environmental pollution liability insurance in the next five years has significantly increased,with huge development space.Based on the above research conclusions,it is believed that the government should further improve the laws and regulations related to environmental pollution liability insurance and continuously improve the regulatory level;Insurance companies can promote the development of environmental pollution liability insurance by expanding its coverage,improving the rate system,and improving its underwriting capacity;Enterprises should continuously improve their purchasing power and awareness of insurance,and actively purchase environmental pollution liability insurance.