Research On The Impact Of Investor Attention On Carbon Trading Price Fluctuations

China has the world’s largest carbon trading market,and compared with the stock market and bond market,the carbon trading market is an emerging financial market,and it is still immature in terms of investor management,market operation and regulatory mechanisms.Corresponding to the largest carbon trading market,China also has a large investor group,and most of these investors do not have professional carbon finance knowledge and perfect investment logic,they are easily affected by market speculation and public opinion hot spots,so as to implement irrational investment decisions.With the rapid increase of the number of investors in each carbon trading market,it may bring about the problem of price fluctuations,and the carbon trading price to a certain extent reflects the emission reduction costs of enterprises,which in turn affects the emission reduction behavior of enterprises,therefore,it is necessary to prevent carbon trading prices from fluctuating from fundamentals,maintain effective pricing,study the relationship between investors’ attention and price fluctuations in China’s carbon trading market is of great significance.Based on the theory of behavioral finance and the relevant characteristics of carbon trading,this paper analyzes the price fluctuations that may be caused by carbon trading by investors.With the rapid development of the Internet and big data today,Internet search has become an important channel for people to actively obtain information,and Internet search index has also become an important indicator commonly used in various studies to measure investor attention.Based on the unbalanced panel data of the national carbon trading market and eight local carbon trading markets including Shanghai and Beijing from 2013 to 2023,this paper selects Baidu search "keywords" to establish the overall attention index,and crawls relevant data through Python and other methods to test the impact of investor attention on carbon trading price fluctuations.Based on the fixed-effect model regression results,this paper finds that:(1)Investor attention has a significant impact on carbon trading price fluctuations: the current high investor attention may lead to an increase in the current carbon trading yield,while the high investor attention 3 days in advance may reduce investors’ expectations of the future price level,resulting in a decrease in the current carbon trading yield;(2)Although there is a reversal effect of investor attention on the fluctuation of carbon trading prices,it will not occur immediately in a short period of time;At the same time,after introducing instrumental variables for endogenous problem analysis and robustness testing,it is found that the conclusion of this paper is still valid.In addition,through the heterogeneity analysis of the sample data,this paper finds that investors pay attention to the stronger marginal role of the carbon trading market with the higher the number of emission control enterprises.Empirical analysis shows that investors are concerned about fluctuations that cause carbon trading prices to deviate from fundamentals,and that such fluctuations may further intensify in the future,so effective measures must be taken.This paper puts forward strategic suggestions from three aspects: incentive,constraint and guarantee,so as to bring the carbon trading market price closer to its real price.