The Impact Of COVID-19 On Airlines’ Pollution Abatement Costs Under CNG2020 Strategy

While the aviation industry is developing vigorously,it is facing an increasingly severe carbon emission.The impact of aviation activities on global climate change has attracted the attention of governments,related institutions,and experts.Currently during the pilot phase of the"CNG2020（Carbon Neutral Growth from 2020）Strategy",discussing the pollution abatement behavior of civil aviation enterprises under the CNG2020 strategy is a key issue in the development of the civil aviation industry.For the civil aviation industry,which has been hit hard by the COVID-19,the high Pollution Abatement Costs（PAC）will bring greater operating pressure to civil aviation.The analysis of the pollution abatement behavior of civil aviation will provide a good decision-making reference for the sharing of emission abatement responsibilities.Therefore,considering the impact of COVID-19 and CNG 2020,it is of great significance to scientifically and reasonably measure the PACs of civil aviation,analyze their emission reduction potential,and formulate targeted pollution abatement strategies on this basis.In the context of the severe impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry,this paper considers three scenarios of the most serious,medium and least impact of the epidemic（corresponding to the recovery paths L,M,and H）.Based on the actual indicator data of 28international civil aviation companies from 2012 to 2020,the three-stage network environment production function and BP neural network are used to predict the PACs of civil aviation companies under three recovery paths,and then the impact of COVID-19 on the PACs of civil aviation companies during the pilot stage（2021-2023）of CNG2020 strategy was analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:First,the COVID-19 will have a significant impact on the PACs of civil aviation companies during the CNG2020 pilot phase.Secondly,Indonesian Airlines,All Nippon Airways,Scandinavian Airlines,and Hainan Airlines have relatively high PACs in each year with or without the epidemic,while Delta Airlines,Lufthansa and Iberia Airlines have zero PAC for each year in the presence or absence of the epidemic.Third,there are differences in the PAC rankings of airlines in different regions,the PAC rankings of airlines in Asia and Europe are hit harder by COVID-19;the PAC rankings of airlines in the same region with similar geographic locations also show different changes.Fourth,The PACs of various airlines differs under the three recovery paths of L,M,and H,and conforms to PAC_H>PAC_M>PAC_L.Finally,The PACs of Cathay Pacific,Garuda Indonesia and Korean Air have the largest differences under different recovery paths,and China Southern Airlines’PAC under the rebound curve L is much higher than the PAC under the rebound curve H.