The Impact Of Demographic Factors On Carbon Emissions And Its Spatial Heterogeneity

The study found that nearly 90% of greenhouse gas emissions are caused by human daily activities.The burning of fossil fuels by human beings has caused great pressure on the environment,and has become one of the main causes of environmental problems.China is the largest developing country in the world,with a large population.Population growth has increased the burden,resulting in a sustained increase in energy demand and carbon emissions.Based on the national conditions of China with a large population base,this study is of great significance to help the country achieve the goal of energy conservation,consumption reduction and carbon neutrality.This paper first expands the population factor to six indicators,namely,population size,population industrial structure,population urban-rural structure,population family structure,population age structure and population quality,Then,the panel spectral clustering algorithm is used to divide the regions of 30 provinces in China,and the three-dimensional nuclear density estimation is carried out for the carbon emissions of different regions.The dynamic evolution characteristics of each classification region in the past decade are analyzed,and the difference contribution rate is calculated using the Thiel index.The intra-class and inter-class differences of carbon emissions of different provinces are compared.Finally,the convergence of carbon emissions per capita in China and four major provinces is discussed.The study found that:(1)population size has the greatest impact on carbon emissions among many population factors,urban and rural structure and population industrial structure are important factors affecting carbon emissions,while family structure,age structure and population quality do not have a causal effect on carbon emissions at the level of Bayesian network causal analysis.(2)The multi-indicator panel cluster model is established through six population indicators,and four different provincial categories are obtained.The dynamic evolution trend of China’s carbon emissions is obtained by studying the three-dimensional nuclear density estimation chart and the Thayer index of China and four major provinces.The growth rate of China’s per capita carbon emissions is slowing down,and the per capita carbon emissions have experienced a trend of first dispersion and then concentration,and the polarization is not serious.However,the situation in different regions is different.China’s carbon emissions and population have great similarities.The regional differences in carbon emissions are largely caused by the differences in population.To reduce the differences in carbon emissions,we must reduce the regional differences in population to achieve inter-provincial carbon equity.(3)The results of the difference analysis are further confirmed in the spatial convergence analysis.The differences in China’s carbon emissions come from the different conditions of each province,and these differences will not disappear actively,and will not produce an active convergence trend,which requires the participation and regulation of policies.Finally,according to the conclusions,three suggestions are drawn: gradually optimize the population structure and firmly promote the carbon peak;Adjust the industrial structure and promote the low carbonization of the industry;Adhere to the spatial characteristics and strive to promote provincial carbon equity.