Research On Identification And Prevention Of Coal Enterprise Bond Default Risk

Since the opening of the bond market,the scale of bond issuance has increased year by year.However,after the first bond default event occurred in 2014,the scale of bond default has increased significantly.Frequent bond default events are not conducive to the sustainable development of the financial market in our country.The government issued many policies to indicate zero tolerance of bond default and resolute determination to prevent the bond default risk.Among the bond defaults,the bond defaults of coal industry deserve special attention.Faced with such challenges as the important adjustment of global energy structure,the imbalance between supply and demand in the coal industry,the decline of coal price,and the strong liquidity risk caused by large-scale investment of coal enterprises,bank credit was more strict in the past,and debt financing became the main way of financing in the coal industry.Therefore,this paper takes Y company as an example to identify the bond default risk in the coal industry and put forward preventive suggestions,which has certain practical significance for the bond issuers,regulatory authorities and investors.In this paper,Z-score model and Zhang Ling’s financial crisis early warning model are used to identify the bond default risk on the eve of the default of Y company.Firstly,the index value of Y company in the last three years and the quarter before the default is calculated by using the formula,and the corresponding threshold value of the model is compared to judge its bond default risk.According to the analysis of Y company’s financial situation and early warning model indicators,it is found that the internal reasons for Y company’s bond default are insufficient cash flow,unreasonable debt structure and drag of non-core business.In addition to using financial data to identify the default risk of Y company bonds,this paper also analyzes the macro factors affecting the default risk of Y company bonds.The results show that slowing GDP growth,tight financing environment,industrial economic downturn,insufficient support willingness of local government and fictitious high rating will all affect the default risk of bonds.On the basis of the above research,this paper puts forward suggestions to prevent the risk of coal enterprise bond default from three aspects: the bond issuer,the bond investor and the regulatory department.Issuers should attach importance to corporate cash flow,optimize debt structure,enhance corporate profitability and establish and improve risk early warning mechanism.Investors should enhance rational investment awareness,enhance risk identification ability and strengthen post-investment tracking management.Regulators should strengthen supervision over bond issuers and credit rating agencies to ensure the safe and stable development of the bond market.